TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12474040
Played Aug 22Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1166119111012––
Vadim Smetenko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:24 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeVadim Smetenko to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Vadim Smetenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 76 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Vadim Smetenko at 57.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 1–1 Vadim Smetenko Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 04:24What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Smetenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1510 vs Smetenko 1593
Smetenko
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 40% vs Smetenko 60%
Smetenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 50% vs Smetenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov -1 · Smetenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Smetenko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potapov form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 1.91 / Smetenko 1.80
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Smetenko)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12474040
Potapov1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 40 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Smetenko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 9 of 15
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePotapov1wins
AwaySmetenko1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPotapovSmetenkoP − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match41.040.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovSmetenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 393 vs 15 / 2346.1%65.2%181 / 393 vs 15 / 23Avg sets wonper match2.12.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.740.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmetenkoPotapov 1.91/Smetenko 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Smetenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Smetenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 22 · 16:25M. Potapov—1169101V. Smetenko—61111123
WAug 21 · 20:45M. Potapov—15911113V. Smetenko—1311791
M. Potapov10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162WSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152
V. Smetenko10
WAug 22 · 18:25V. Smetenko1.531211113V. Hrybeniuk2.3810630WAug 22 · 15:25V. Smetenko1.731112118113M. Slozka2.0081471152LAug 22 · 14:25O. Lutsyshyn2.25116113113V. Smetenko1.5781151182WAug 22 · 12:55V. Smetenko2.00117611113I. Pytsko1.7361111762WAug 22 · 03:15V. Hrybeniuk1.9131181182V. Smetenko1.80117117113LAug 22 · 02:15V. Smetenko1.807590I. Pytsko1.911111113LAug 21 · 23:45M. Slozka1.91611614113V. Smetenko1.80118111292WAug 21 · 21:45O. Lutsyshyn1.808890V. Smetenko1.911111113LAug 21 · 20:45M. Potapov2.0015911113V. Smetenko1.731311791LAug 19 · 10:38V. Smetenko1.5371151182V. Bilobrov2.38117115113
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