TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12474041
Played Aug 22Finished
Oleh Lutsyshyn
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118611115311118
Vadim Smetenko
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:24 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeVadim Smetenko to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleh Lutsyshyn above · Vadim Smetenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 85 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Vadim Smetenko at 55.7%
85 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Lutsyshyn 0–1 Vadim Smetenko Oleh Lutsyshyn has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 04:24What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Smetenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Lutsyshyn 1584 vs Smetenko 1592
Smetenko
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lutsyshyn 60% vs Smetenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lutsyshyn 60% vs Smetenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lutsyshyn +1 · Smetenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Smetenko) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lutsyshyn form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLutsyshyn 2.25 / Smetenko 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Smetenko)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12474041
Lutsyshyn2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 35 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back20% 9 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30
Smetenko1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 9 of 15
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLutsyshyn0wins
AwaySmetenko1wins
Smetenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
This 1 meeting
MetricLutsyshynSmetenkoL − SBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match25.033.0−8.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLutsyshynSmetenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 171 vs 12 / 1953.8%63.2%92 / 171 vs 12 / 19Avg sets wonper match2.02.5per matchAvg pointsper match35.740.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmetenkoLutsyshyn 2.25/Smetenko 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Smetenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lutsyshyn won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 21 · 21:45O. Lutsyshyn—8890V. Smetenko—1111113
O. Lutsyshyn10
WAug 23 · 10:25M. Slozka2.50341141O. Lutsyshyn1.5011114113LAug 23 · 09:25O. Lutsyshyn2.385760R. Andrishak1.531111113WAug 23 · 08:25O. Lutsyshyn1.361111811113V. Hrybeniuk3.0078111322WAug 23 · 06:55O. Lutsyshyn1.571211615113V. Korobko2.25142111332WAug 23 · 04:55O. Lutsyshyn1.61119116123I. Pytsko2.20811311102WAug 22 · 17:55M. Potapov2.0011491382O. Lutsyshyn1.738111111113WAug 22 · 16:55O. Lutsyshyn1.7311116113I. Pytsko2.00791181WAug 22 · 15:55O. Lutsyshyn1.361011811113V. Hrybeniuk3.0012811262WAug 22 · 12:25O. Lutsyshyn1.671111113M. Slozka2.101940LAug 22 · 02:15O. Lutsyshyn1.736890M. Potapov2.001111113
V. Smetenko10
WAug 22 · 18:25V. Smetenko1.531211113V. Hrybeniuk2.3810630WAug 22 · 16:25M. Potapov1.911169101V. Smetenko1.8061111123WAug 22 · 15:25V. Smetenko1.731112118113M. Slozka2.0081471152WAug 22 · 12:55V. Smetenko2.00117611113I. Pytsko1.7361111762WAug 22 · 03:15V. Hrybeniuk1.9131181182V. Smetenko1.80117117113LAug 22 · 02:15V. Smetenko1.807590I. Pytsko1.911111113LAug 21 · 23:45M. Slozka1.91611614113V. Smetenko1.80118111292WAug 21 · 21:45O. Lutsyshyn1.808890V. Smetenko1.911111113LAug 21 · 20:45M. Potapov2.0015911113V. Smetenko1.731311791LAug 19 · 10:38V. Smetenko1.5371151182V. Bilobrov2.38117115113
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