TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467188
Played Aug 22Finished
Oleh Lutsyshyn
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811911––––
Mykhailo Potapov
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:57 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeOleh Lutsyshyn to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleh Lutsyshyn above · Mykhailo Potapov below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Oleh Lutsyshyn at 58.9%
56 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Lutsyshyn 2–1 Mykhailo Potapov Mykhailo Potapov has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:57What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lutsyshyn
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lutsyshyn 1571 vs Potapov 1561
Lutsyshyn
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lutsyshyn 60% vs Potapov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lutsyshyn 60% vs Potapov 40%
Lutsyshyn
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lutsyshyn +2 · Potapov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lutsyshyn) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLutsyshyn 1.73 / Potapov 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lutsyshyn)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #12467188
Lutsyshyn1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 53 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Potapov2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 38 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLutsyshyn2wins
AwayPotapov1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderLutsyshyn leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lutsyshyn1Potapov2n = 3Potapov took 2 of 3
S2Lutsyshyn2Potapov1n = 3Lutsyshyn took 2 of 3
S3Lutsyshyn1Potapov2n = 3Potapov took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricLutsyshynPotapovL − PBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match38.034.7+3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLutsyshynPotapovBasisWin rate · lifetime91 / 170 vs 180 / 38853.5%46.4%91 / 170 vs 180 / 388Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LutsyshynLutsyshyn 1.73/Potapov 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lutsyshyn · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 22 · 02:15O. Lutsyshyn—6890M. Potapov—1111113
WAug 14 · 21:45O. Lutsyshyn—91111123M. Potapov—1196101
WApr 25 · 15:25O. Lutsyshyn—111188103M. Potapov—35111152
O. Lutsyshyn10
WAug 23 · 10:25M. Slozka2.50341141O. Lutsyshyn1.5011114113LAug 23 · 09:25O. Lutsyshyn2.385760R. Andrishak1.531111113WAug 23 · 08:25O. Lutsyshyn1.361111811113V. Hrybeniuk3.0078111322WAug 23 · 06:55O. Lutsyshyn1.571211615113V. Korobko2.25142111332WAug 23 · 04:55O. Lutsyshyn1.61119116123I. Pytsko2.20811311102WAug 22 · 17:55M. Potapov2.0011491382O. Lutsyshyn1.738111111113WAug 22 · 16:55O. Lutsyshyn1.7311116113I. Pytsko2.00791181WAug 22 · 15:55O. Lutsyshyn1.361011811113V. Hrybeniuk3.0012811262WAug 22 · 14:25O. Lutsyshyn2.25116113113V. Smetenko1.5781151182WAug 22 · 12:25O. Lutsyshyn1.671111113M. Slozka2.101940
M. Potapov10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162WSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LAug 22 · 17:55M. Potapov2.0011491382O. Lutsyshyn1.738111111113
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