TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12472309
Played Aug 22Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1184119111311811
Oleh Lutsyshyn
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:46 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeOleh Lutsyshyn to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Oleh Lutsyshyn below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 97 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Oleh Lutsyshyn at 58.9%
97 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 1–2 Oleh Lutsyshyn Mykhailo Potapov has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:46What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lutsyshyn
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1518 vs Lutsyshyn 1625
Lutsyshyn
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 40% vs Lutsyshyn 80%
Lutsyshyn
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 50% vs Lutsyshyn 70%
Lutsyshyn
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov -2 · Lutsyshyn +4
Lutsyshyn
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Lutsyshyn) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lutsyshyn form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 2.00 / Lutsyshyn 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Lutsyshyn)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12472309
Potapov2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 40 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Lutsyshyn1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 55 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it87% 41 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePotapov1wins
AwayLutsyshyn2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderLutsyshyn leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potapov2Lutsyshyn1n = 3Potapov took 2 of 3
S2Potapov1Lutsyshyn2n = 3Lutsyshyn took 2 of 3
S3Potapov2Lutsyshyn1n = 3Potapov took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricPotapovLutsyshynP − LBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match34.738.0−3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovLutsyshynBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 392 vs 95 / 17446.2%54.6%181 / 392 vs 95 / 174Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.735.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LutsyshynPotapov 2.00/Lutsyshyn 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.7%
Lutsyshyn · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lutsyshyn won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 22 · 02:15M. Potapov—1111113O. Lutsyshyn—6890
LAug 14 · 21:45M. Potapov—1196101O. Lutsyshyn—91111123
LApr 25 · 15:25M. Potapov—35111152O. Lutsyshyn—111188103
M. Potapov10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162WSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152
O. Lutsyshyn10
WAug 23 · 10:25M. Slozka2.50341141O. Lutsyshyn1.5011114113LAug 23 · 09:25O. Lutsyshyn2.385760R. Andrishak1.531111113WAug 23 · 08:25O. Lutsyshyn1.361111811113V. Hrybeniuk3.0078111322WAug 23 · 06:55O. Lutsyshyn1.571211615113V. Korobko2.25142111332WAug 23 · 04:55O. Lutsyshyn1.61119116123I. Pytsko2.20811311102WAug 22 · 16:55O. Lutsyshyn1.7311116113I. Pytsko2.00791181WAug 22 · 15:55O. Lutsyshyn1.361011811113V. Hrybeniuk3.0012811262WAug 22 · 14:25O. Lutsyshyn2.25116113113V. Smetenko1.5781151182WAug 22 · 12:25O. Lutsyshyn1.671111113M. Slozka2.101940LAug 22 · 02:15O. Lutsyshyn1.736890M. Potapov2.001111113
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