TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12466992
Played Aug 21Finished
Mykhailo Potapov
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1513911117119––
Vadim Smetenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVadim Smetenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMykhailo Potapov above · Vadim Smetenko below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 86 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Vadim Smetenko at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Potapov 1–0 Vadim Smetenko Vadim Smetenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:07What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Smetenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Potapov 1567 vs Smetenko 1660
Smetenko
Wrong
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potapov 40% vs Smetenko 80%
Smetenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potapov 40% vs Smetenko 80%
Smetenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Potapov +1 · Smetenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smetenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smetenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotapov 2.00 / Smetenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Smetenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #12466992
Potapov2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 38 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Smetenko1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite73% won 8 of 11
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePotapov1wins
AwaySmetenko0wins
Potapov leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPotapovSmetenkoP − SBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match46.040.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotapovSmetenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 384 vs 9 / 1446.4%64.3%178 / 384 vs 9 / 14Avg sets wonper match2.12.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.740.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmetenkoPotapov 2.00/Smetenko 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Smetenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Potapov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 21 · 20:45M. Potapov—15911113V. Smetenko—1311791
M. Potapov10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Potapov1.221111113V. Korobko4.005970WSep 6 · 24:30M. Potapov1.831112113Y. Tebenko1.8361050LSep 5 · 23:00M. Potapov3.407790M. Khomenko1.301111113LSep 5 · 21:30M. Potapov2.25511561O. Storozhenko1.5711711113WSep 5 · 20:00M. Potapov1.911111118113D. Maltsev1.8013971172LSep 4 · 18:55I. Pytsko1.6711119113M. Potapov2.10541151WSep 4 · 17:25M. Potapov2.5013115113O. Storozhenko1.501191151LSep 4 · 15:25Y. Tebenko1.83111147113M. Potapov1.8366111162WSep 4 · 13:25D. Maltsev1.7384111182M. Potapov2.00111179113LSep 4 · 12:25O. Budnikov1.61111146113M. Potapov2.2077111152
V. Smetenko10
WAug 22 · 18:25V. Smetenko1.531211113V. Hrybeniuk2.3810630WAug 22 · 16:25M. Potapov1.911169101V. Smetenko1.8061111123WAug 22 · 15:25V. Smetenko1.731112118113M. Slozka2.0081471152LAug 22 · 14:25O. Lutsyshyn2.25116113113V. Smetenko1.5781151182WAug 22 · 12:55V. Smetenko2.00117611113I. Pytsko1.7361111762WAug 22 · 03:15V. Hrybeniuk1.9131181182V. Smetenko1.80117117113LAug 22 · 02:15V. Smetenko1.807590I. Pytsko1.911111113LAug 21 · 23:45M. Slozka1.91611614113V. Smetenko1.80118111292WAug 21 · 21:45O. Lutsyshyn1.808890V. Smetenko1.911111113LAug 19 · 10:38V. Smetenko1.5371151182V. Bilobrov2.38117115113
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