TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12474367
Played Aug 22Finished
Vadim Smetenko
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210116113––––
Volodymyr Hrybeniuk
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:45 and never touched — 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeVadim Smetenko to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVadim Smetenko above · Volodymyr Hrybeniuk below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-3
Point 53 set 3, 11-3 — our read held Vadim Smetenko at 64.7%
53 points played in total.
H2H Vadim Smetenko 1–0 Volodymyr Hrybeniuk Volodymyr Hrybeniuk has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:45What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Smetenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Smetenko 1579 vs Hrybeniuk 1476
Smetenko
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smetenko 80% vs Hrybeniuk 60%
Smetenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smetenko 50% vs Hrybeniuk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smetenko +2 · Hrybeniuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Smetenko) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrybeniuk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmetenko 1.53 / Hrybeniuk 2.38
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Smetenko)+7.0pp
Setka Cup · #12474367
Smetenko1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 9 of 15
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Hrybeniuk2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 53 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back28% 19 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSmetenko1wins
AwayHrybeniuk0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderSmetenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSmetenkoHrybeniukS − HBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match47.041.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmetenkoHrybeniukBasisWin rate · lifetime14 / 22 vs 165 / 32063.6%51.6%14 / 22 vs 165 / 320Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match41.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmetenkoSmetenko 1.53/Hrybeniuk 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.8%
Smetenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Smetenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 22 · 03:15V. Smetenko—117117113V. Hrybeniuk—31181182
V. Smetenko10
WAug 22 · 16:25M. Potapov1.911169101V. Smetenko1.8061111123WAug 22 · 15:25V. Smetenko1.731112118113M. Slozka2.0081471152LAug 22 · 14:25O. Lutsyshyn2.25116113113V. Smetenko1.5781151182WAug 22 · 12:55V. Smetenko2.00117611113I. Pytsko1.7361111762WAug 22 · 03:15V. Hrybeniuk1.9131181182V. Smetenko1.80117117113LAug 22 · 02:15V. Smetenko1.807590I. Pytsko1.911111113LAug 21 · 23:45M. Slozka1.91611614113V. Smetenko1.80118111292WAug 21 · 21:45O. Lutsyshyn1.808890V. Smetenko1.911111113LAug 21 · 20:45M. Potapov2.0015911113V. Smetenko1.731311791LAug 19 · 10:38V. Smetenko1.5371151182V. Bilobrov2.38117115113
V. Hrybeniuk10
WAug 29 · 11:25I. Pytsko1.7341191182V. Hrybeniuk2.00115118113WAug 29 · 09:55V. Hrybeniuk2.381111113M. Slozka1.535980LAug 29 · 07:55I. Kvak1.44111195113V. Hrybeniuk2.6378111192LAug 29 · 05:55V. Kuzmych2.1011711113V. Hrybeniuk1.67711531WAug 29 · 04:55V. Dobrovolskyi2.637750V. Hrybeniuk1.441111113WAug 28 · 16:56V. Hrybeniuk1.575111111113V. Dobrovolskyi2.2511913442WAug 28 · 15:55V. Dobrovolskyi2.63610100V. Hrybeniuk1.441112123LAug 28 · 14:25M. Slozka1.6111711113V. Hrybeniuk2.20511981WAug 28 · 12:55V. Kuzmych1.674830V. Hrybeniuk2.101111113LAug 22 · 03:15V. Hrybeniuk1.9131181182V. Smetenko1.80117117113
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