TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12470446
Played Aug 22Finished
Petr Zmuda
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115811711711––
Radim Pavelka
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:57 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Zmuda above · Radim Pavelka below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Radim Pavelka at 54.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Petr Zmuda 1–6 Radim Pavelka Petr Zmuda has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:57What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zmuda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Pavelka
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmuda 1513 vs Pavelka 1538
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmuda 60% vs Pavelka 40%
Zmuda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmuda 60% vs Pavelka 30%
Zmuda
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmuda -1 · Pavelka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pavelka) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavelka form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmuda 1.80 / Pavelka 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pavelka)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12470446
Zmuda1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 55 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it80% 35 of 44
Pavelka1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 81 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back25% 28 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeZmuda1wins
AwayPavelka6wins
3 of 7 to a deciderPavelka leads 6–1, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmudan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPavelka100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmuda2Pavelka5n = 7Pavelka took 5 of 7
S2Zmuda4Pavelka3n = 7Zmuda took 4 of 7
S3Zmuda3Pavelka4n = 7Pavelka took 4 of 7
S4Zmuda0Pavelka6n = 6Pavelka took 6 of 6
S5Zmuda1Pavelka2n = 3Pavelka took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricZmudaPavelkaZ − PBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match38.042.9−4.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmudaPavelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 310 vs 440 / 88155.5%49.9%172 / 310 vs 440 / 881Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaZmuda 1.80/Pavelka 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 22 · 06:00P. Zmuda—118771R. Pavelka—51111113
LJul 10 · 09:30P. Zmuda—7131313102R. Pavelka—11111115123
WJul 10 · 07:00P. Zmuda—111164113R. Pavelka—76111162
LJul 5 · 09:30P. Zmuda—81111892R. Pavelka—116711113
LJul 5 · 06:00P. Zmuda—98100R. Pavelka—1111123
LJul 28 · 21:30P. Zmuda—611471R. Pavelka—11711113
LJul 28 · 19:30P. Zmuda—481191R. Pavelka—11118113
P. Zmuda10
LAug 23 · 20:59M. Chlebecek1.9111119113P. Zmuda1.80941151LAug 23 · 20:00P. Zmuda1.91911781M. Chlebecek1.8011411113LAug 23 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.001111113P. Zmuda1.738360LAug 23 · 18:00P. Zmuda2.209860T. Janata1.611111113WAug 22 · 09:00D. Tuma2.2051190P. Zmuda1.611113113LAug 22 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.6767111162J. Stolfa2.10111178113LAug 22 · 07:30D. Tuma1.9111116123P. Zmuda1.806511101LAug 12 · 17:28T. Janata1.8011129113P. Zmuda1.904101191WAug 12 · 16:00T. Janata1.8011911772P. Zmuda1.91911811113WAug 12 · 15:00J. Stolfa2.1071171242P. Zmuda1.671181110113
R. Pavelka10
WSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0012811113R. Pavelka1.731011781WSep 6 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.6711156113J. Prokupek2.106131121LSep 5 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.361111113R. Pavelka3.008550LSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.2581111113R. Pavelka3.75117471WSep 5 · 07:30R. Pavelka2.251161111113T. Holik1.5751113792WSep 5 · 06:30M. Sedlak1.806780R. Pavelka1.911111113LSep 4 · 17:30F. Just1.301311113R. Pavelka3.4011930WSep 4 · 16:00R. Pavelka1.7313115113D. Parhomenko2.001151191
Upcoming Matches
P. Zmuda
Nothing scheduled
R. Pavelka
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