TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12470413
Played Aug 22Finished
Daniel Tuma
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161156111210––
Petr Zmuda
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Zmuda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDaniel Tuma above · Petr Zmuda below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 72 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Petr Zmuda at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Tuma 9–11 Petr Zmuda Daniel Tuma has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:50What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zmuda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-11 in 20
Zmuda
Wrong
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuma 1598 vs Zmuda 1513
Tuma
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuma 60% vs Zmuda 40%
Tuma
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuma 60% vs Zmuda 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuma +1 · Zmuda -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tuma) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmuda form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuma 1.91 / Zmuda 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tuma)+5.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12470413
Tuma1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 162 of 365
Down 0–1, comes back26% 51 of 195
Down 0–2, comes back10% 10 of 105
Zmuda1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 55 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it80% 35 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuma5wins
AwayZmuda5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuma71.4%5 of 7
AwayZmuda100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuma7Zmuda3n = 10Tuma took 7 of 10
S2Tuma3Zmuda7n = 10Zmuda took 7 of 10
S3Tuma5Zmuda5n = 10split evenly
S4Tuma3Zmuda4n = 7Zmuda took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricTumaZmudaT − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.837.1+0.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTumaZmudaBasisWin rate · lifetime771 / 1478 vs 172 / 31052.2%55.5%771 / 1478 vs 172 / 310Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TumaTuma 1.91/Zmuda 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Tuma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tuma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 09:00D. Tuma—51190P. Zmuda—1113113
WAug 22 · 07:30D. Tuma—11116123P. Zmuda—6511101
LAug 10 · 22:00D. Tuma—611100P. Zmuda—1113123
WAug 1 · 18:00D. Tuma—1111123P. Zmuda—85100
WAug 1 · 02:58D. Tuma—11811133P. Zmuda—4119111
WAug 1 · 24:00D. Tuma—11511113P. Zmuda—811581
LJul 28 · 08:58D. Tuma—119111372P. Zmuda—411915113
LJul 28 · 07:30D. Tuma—791151P. Zmuda—11113113
LJul 27 · 01:30D. Tuma—1451171P. Zmuda—121113113
WJul 24 · 22:00D. Tuma—1111108113P. Zmuda—87121172
D. Tuma10
WSep 3 · 21:30D. Tuma1.521111113V. Postelt2.356960WSep 3 · 20:00M. Sedlak1.914611111D. Tuma1.8011117133WSep 3 · 19:00T. Vinter1.9141181182D. Tuma1.80111119113WSep 3 · 18:30D. Tuma1.40111212113V. Postelt2.757101481WSep 3 · 17:30D. Tuma1.73151110113M. Sobisek2.001351271WSep 3 · 16:00D. Tuma1.911111113J. Stolfa1.809770LSep 3 · 15:30M. Sobisek2.00118119133D. Tuma1.73411711112WSep 3 · 14:00D. Tuma2.008111510113J. Hradecky1.73118131252WSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492WSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma2.20117117113K. Kapras1.6141161152
P. Zmuda10
LAug 23 · 20:59M. Chlebecek1.9111119113P. Zmuda1.80941151LAug 23 · 20:00P. Zmuda1.91911781M. Chlebecek1.8011411113LAug 23 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.001111113P. Zmuda1.738360LAug 23 · 18:00P. Zmuda2.209860T. Janata1.611111113WAug 22 · 09:00D. Tuma2.2051190P. Zmuda1.611113113LAug 22 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.6767111162J. Stolfa2.10111178113LAug 22 · 06:00P. Zmuda1.80118771R. Pavelka1.9151111113LAug 12 · 17:28T. Janata1.8011129113P. Zmuda1.904101191WAug 12 · 16:00T. Janata1.8011911772P. Zmuda1.91911811113WAug 12 · 15:00J. Stolfa2.1071171242P. Zmuda1.671181110113
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