Jakub Stolfa vs Petr Zmuda 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProMatch #12403926

Played Aug 12Finished

Jakub Stolfa

Home

2.10

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 2

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

7111187111210411

Petr Zmuda

Away

1.67

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Jakub Stolfa to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

no pick shipped

How it is goingJakub Stolfa above · Petr Zmuda below

Set 1 · 7-11

Set 2 · 11-8

Set 3 · 7-11

Set 4 · 12-10

Set 5 · 4-11

Point 92 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Jakub Stolfa at 54.0%

92 points played in total.

H2H Jakub Stolfa 7–6 Petr Zmuda Petr Zmuda has won 6 of their 13 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6SplitHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 13:23

What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Zmuda

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

7-6 in 13

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Stolfa 1608 vs Zmuda 1591

Stolfa

Wrong

both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Stolfa 60% vs Zmuda 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Stolfa 60% vs Zmuda 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Stolfa -2 · Zmuda -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Zmuda) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Stolfa form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsStolfa 2.10 / Zmuda 1.67

Signal prob.44% / 56%

Edge (Zmuda)+0.0pp

Czech Liga Pro · #12403926

Stolfa2.10

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog56% won 32 of 57

Down 0–1, comes back36% 12 of 33

Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17

Zmuda1.67

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite62% won 53 of 86

Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21

Up 1–0, closes it81% 33 of 41

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeStolfa4wins

AwayZmuda6wins

2 of 10 to a deciderZmuda leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeStolfan = 2, below the 3 needed

AwayZmuda62.5%5 of 8

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Stolfa2Zmuda8n = 10Zmuda took 8 of 10

S2Stolfa6Zmuda4n = 10Stolfa took 6 of 10

S3Stolfa5Zmuda5n = 10split evenly

S4Stolfa6Zmuda3n = 9Stolfa took 6 of 9

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home440%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricStolfaZmudaS − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.340.8−2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricStolfaZmudaBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 336 vs 173 / 30650.6%56.5%170 / 336 vs 173 / 306Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.3per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Zmuda

Stolfa 2.10/Zmuda 1.67

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

55.8%

Zmuda · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Zmuda won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LAug 12 · 15:00J. Stolfa—71171242P. Zmuda—1181110113

LJul 14 · 12:00J. Stolfa—912681P. Zmuda—111011113

LJul 13 · 09:30J. Stolfa—612111192P. Zmuda—111458113

WJul 13 · 08:00J. Stolfa—81111133P. Zmuda—1157111

LJul 7 · 12:00J. Stolfa—1168101P. Zmuda—51111123

WJul 7 · 08:58J. Stolfa—71111113P. Zmuda—113791

LJul 7 · 08:00J. Stolfa—13670P. Zmuda—1511113

WJul 6 · 12:00J. Stolfa—11113133P. Zmuda—8811111

LJul 6 · 08:00J. Stolfa—4101131P. Zmuda—11129113

WJul 1 · 10:30J. Stolfa—101311143P. Zmuda—12119121

J. Stolfa10

LSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153 LSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113 LSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113 WSep 6 · 18:00M. Chlebecek1.6151060J. Stolfa2.201112113 LSep 4 · 16:59J. Stolfa1.67731281S. Kadavy2.10111110113 WSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa2.5081111113D. Hofman1.50119881 LSep 4 · 15:30S. Kadavy2.20116119113J. Stolfa1.6151171192 LSep 4 · 14:00J. Stolfa3.4061111782M. Pikous1.30117911113 WSep 4 · 08:58D. Hofman1.4012115992J. Stolfa2.751091111113 LSep 4 · 08:00J. Stolfa2.25131091192D. Hofman1.571112117113

P. Zmuda10

LAug 23 · 20:59M. Chlebecek1.9111119113P. Zmuda1.80941151 LAug 23 · 20:00P. Zmuda1.91911781M. Chlebecek1.8011411113 LAug 23 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.001111113P. Zmuda1.738360 LAug 23 · 18:00P. Zmuda2.209860T. Janata1.611111113 WAug 22 · 09:00D. Tuma2.2051190P. Zmuda1.611113113 LAug 22 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.6767111162J. Stolfa2.10111178113 LAug 22 · 07:30D. Tuma1.9111116123P. Zmuda1.806511101 LAug 22 · 06:00P. Zmuda1.80118771R. Pavelka1.9151111113 LAug 12 · 17:28T. Janata1.8011129113P. Zmuda1.904101191 WAug 12 · 16:00T. Janata1.8011911772P. Zmuda1.91911811113

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