TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12474728
Played Aug 23Finished
Petr Zmuda
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811611––––
Tomas Janata
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:35 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeTomas Janata to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Zmuda above · Tomas Janata below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 56 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Tomas Janata at 56.2%
56 points played in total.
H2H Petr Zmuda 2–5 Tomas Janata Petr Zmuda has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Janata
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Janata
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmuda 1548 vs Janata 1617
Janata
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmuda 20% vs Janata 40%
Janata
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmuda 50% vs Janata 30%
Zmuda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmuda +1 · Janata -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Janata) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Janata form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmuda 2.20 / Janata 1.61
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Janata)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12474728
Zmuda2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 18 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Janata1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 109 of 168
Up 2–0, closes it90% 47 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it77% 75 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeZmuda2wins
AwayJanata5wins
1 of 7 to a deciderJanata leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmudan = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayJanata71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmuda0Janata7n = 7Janata took 7 of 7
S2Zmuda2Janata5n = 7Janata took 5 of 7
S3Zmuda4Janata3n = 7Zmuda took 4 of 7
S4Zmuda2Janata3n = 5Janata took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricZmudaJanataZ − JBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set07−7of 7Avg pointsper match32.638.4−5.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmudaJanataBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 307 vs 431 / 82056%52.6%172 / 307 vs 431 / 820Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JanataZmuda 2.20/Janata 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.7%
Janata · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Janata won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 23 · 18:00P. Zmuda—9860T. Janata—1111113
LAug 12 · 17:28P. Zmuda—4101191T. Janata—11129113
WAug 12 · 16:00P. Zmuda—911811113T. Janata—11911772
LAug 10 · 23:00P. Zmuda—34120T. Janata—1111143
LAug 4 · 24:30P. Zmuda—9811101T. Janata—11115123
WAug 3 · 20:00P. Zmuda—51111113T. Janata—119381
LJul 30 · 15:30P. Zmuda—651141T. Janata—11119113
P. Zmuda10
LAug 23 · 20:59M. Chlebecek1.9111119113P. Zmuda1.80941151LAug 23 · 20:00P. Zmuda1.91911781M. Chlebecek1.8011411113LAug 23 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.001111113P. Zmuda1.738360WAug 22 · 09:00D. Tuma2.2051190P. Zmuda1.611113113LAug 22 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.6767111162J. Stolfa2.10111178113LAug 22 · 07:30D. Tuma1.9111116123P. Zmuda1.806511101LAug 22 · 06:00P. Zmuda1.80118771R. Pavelka1.9151111113LAug 12 · 17:28T. Janata1.8011129113P. Zmuda1.904101191WAug 12 · 16:00T. Janata1.8011911772P. Zmuda1.91911811113WAug 12 · 15:00J. Stolfa2.1071171242P. Zmuda1.671181110113
T. Janata10
LSep 6 · 20:59T. Janata2.0011750R. Krejci1.731311113LSep 6 · 20:30R. Krejci1.807111011113T. Janata1.9111812682WSep 6 · 19:30T. Janata2.2511911113M. Vizek1.57911721LSep 6 · 18:30M. Volf2.25911112123T. Janata1.57118611102WSep 5 · 02:58T. Janata1.80671111113P. Pycha1.9111117372LSep 5 · 01:30T. Janata1.73138951S. Kadavy2.00111111113WSep 5 · 24:30P. Pycha1.9151112592T. Janata1.801131011113WSep 4 · 23:30D. Kouble2.201581181T. Janata1.6117119113WAug 12 · 17:28T. Janata1.8011129113P. Zmuda1.904101191LAug 12 · 16:00T. Janata1.8011911772P. Zmuda1.91911811113
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T. Janata
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