TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12469508
Played Aug 22Finished
Petr Zmuda
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611711117118611
Jakub Stolfa
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Stolfa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Zmuda above · Jakub Stolfa below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 89 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jakub Stolfa at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Petr Zmuda 6–7 Jakub Stolfa Petr Zmuda has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:05What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Zmuda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zmuda 1567 vs Stolfa 1588
Stolfa
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zmuda 40% vs Stolfa 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zmuda 50% vs Stolfa 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zmuda -3 · Stolfa +1
Zmuda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stolfa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmuda form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZmuda 1.67 / Stolfa 2.10
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stolfa)+9.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12469508
Zmuda1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 54 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it100% 21 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it81% 34 of 42
Stolfa2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog54% won 44 of 82
Down 0–1, comes back36% 17 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZmuda6wins
AwayStolfa4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZmuda leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZmuda62.5%5 of 8
AwayStolfan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zmuda8Stolfa2n = 10Zmuda took 8 of 10
S2Zmuda4Stolfa6n = 10Stolfa took 6 of 10
S3Zmuda5Stolfa5n = 10split evenly
S4Zmuda3Stolfa6n = 9Stolfa took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZmudaStolfaZ − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.838.3+2.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZmudaStolfaBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 304 vs 190 / 36556.3%52.1%171 / 304 vs 190 / 365Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StolfaZmuda 1.67/Stolfa 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stolfa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stolfa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 15:00P. Zmuda—1181110113J. Stolfa—71171242
WJul 14 · 12:00P. Zmuda—111011113J. Stolfa—912681
WJul 13 · 09:30P. Zmuda—111458113J. Stolfa—612111192
LJul 13 · 08:00P. Zmuda—1157111J. Stolfa—81111133
WJul 7 · 12:00P. Zmuda—51111123J. Stolfa—1168101
LJul 7 · 08:58P. Zmuda—113791J. Stolfa—71111113
WJul 7 · 08:00P. Zmuda—1511113J. Stolfa—13670
LJul 6 · 12:00P. Zmuda—8811111J. Stolfa—11113133
WJul 6 · 08:00P. Zmuda—11129113J. Stolfa—4101131
LJul 1 · 10:30P. Zmuda—12119121J. Stolfa—101311143
P. Zmuda10
LAug 23 · 20:59M. Chlebecek1.9111119113P. Zmuda1.80941151LAug 23 · 20:00P. Zmuda1.91911781M. Chlebecek1.8011411113LAug 23 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.001111113P. Zmuda1.738360LAug 23 · 18:00P. Zmuda2.209860T. Janata1.611111113WAug 22 · 09:00D. Tuma2.2051190P. Zmuda1.611113113LAug 22 · 07:30D. Tuma1.9111116123P. Zmuda1.806511101LAug 22 · 06:00P. Zmuda1.80118771R. Pavelka1.9151111113LAug 12 · 17:28T. Janata1.8011129113P. Zmuda1.904101191WAug 12 · 16:00T. Janata1.8011911772P. Zmuda1.91911811113WAug 12 · 15:00J. Stolfa2.1071171242P. Zmuda1.671181110113
J. Stolfa10
LSep 6 · 21:06J. Stolfa2.02514611132V. Cermak1.701112119153LSep 6 · 20:30J. Stolfa1.5751291152M. Sobisek2.251110119113LSep 6 · 19:00J. Stolfa2.2512991192V. Cermak1.571011119113WSep 6 · 18:00M. Chlebecek1.6151060J. Stolfa2.201112113LSep 4 · 16:59J. Stolfa1.67731281S. Kadavy2.10111110113WSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa2.5081111113D. Hofman1.50119881LSep 4 · 15:30S. Kadavy2.20116119113J. Stolfa1.6151171192LSep 4 · 14:00J. Stolfa3.4061111782M. Pikous1.30117911113WSep 4 · 08:58D. Hofman1.4012115992J. Stolfa2.751091111113LAug 12 · 15:00J. Stolfa2.1071171242P. Zmuda1.671181110113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.