TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12403921
Played Aug 12Finished
Tomas Janata
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119911118711711
Petr Zmuda
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:23 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Janata to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Janata above · Petr Zmuda below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 95 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Tomas Janata at 57.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Janata 3–1 Petr Zmuda Petr Zmuda has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:23What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Janata
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Janata
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Janata 1565 vs Zmuda 1586
Zmuda
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Janata 60% vs Zmuda 80%
Zmuda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Janata 60% vs Zmuda 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Janata +3 · Zmuda +1
Janata
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Janata) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zmuda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJanata 1.80 / Zmuda 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Janata)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12403921
Janata1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 95 of 147
Up 2–0, closes it89% 42 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it78% 66 of 85
Zmuda1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 17 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back12% 3 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJanata3wins
AwayZmuda1wins
Janata leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJanata75%3 of 4
AwayZmudan = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Janata4Zmuda0n = 4Janata took 4 of 4
S2Janata3Zmuda1n = 4Janata took 3 of 4
S3Janata1Zmuda3n = 4Zmuda took 3 of 4
S4Janata2Zmuda1n = 3Janata took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricJanataZmudaJ − ZBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set40+4of 4Avg pointsper match37.030.2+6.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJanataZmudaBasisWin rate · lifetime434 / 826 vs 172 / 30452.5%56.6%434 / 826 vs 172 / 304Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JanataJanata 1.80/Zmuda 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Janata · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zmuda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 10 · 23:00T. Janata—1111143P. Zmuda—34120
WAug 4 · 24:30T. Janata—11115123P. Zmuda—9811101
LAug 3 · 20:00T. Janata—119381P. Zmuda—51111113
WJul 30 · 15:30T. Janata—11119113P. Zmuda—651141
T. Janata10
LSep 6 · 20:59T. Janata2.0011750R. Krejci1.731311113LSep 6 · 20:30R. Krejci1.807111011113T. Janata1.9111812682WSep 6 · 19:30T. Janata2.2511911113M. Vizek1.57911721LSep 6 · 18:30M. Volf2.25911112123T. Janata1.57118611102WSep 5 · 02:58T. Janata1.80671111113P. Pycha1.9111117372LSep 5 · 01:30T. Janata1.73138951S. Kadavy2.00111111113WSep 5 · 24:30P. Pycha1.9151112592T. Janata1.801131011113WSep 4 · 23:30D. Kouble2.201581181T. Janata1.6117119113LSep 4 · 22:30T. Janata2.00119891R. Krejci1.7381111113WSep 1 · 03:00T. Janata1.801211113D. Kouble1.9110540
P. Zmuda10
LAug 23 · 20:59M. Chlebecek1.9111119113P. Zmuda1.80941151LAug 23 · 20:00P. Zmuda1.91911781M. Chlebecek1.8011411113LAug 23 · 19:30M. Sobisek2.001111113P. Zmuda1.738360LAug 23 · 18:00P. Zmuda2.209860T. Janata1.611111113WAug 22 · 09:00D. Tuma2.2051190P. Zmuda1.611113113LAug 22 · 08:00P. Zmuda1.6767111162J. Stolfa2.10111178113LAug 22 · 07:30D. Tuma1.9111116123P. Zmuda1.806511101LAug 22 · 06:00P. Zmuda1.80118771R. Pavelka1.9151111113LAug 12 · 17:28T. Janata1.8011129113P. Zmuda1.904101191WAug 12 · 15:00J. Stolfa2.1071171242P. Zmuda1.671181110113
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