TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12469687
Played Aug 22Finished
Richard Wagner
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112116118––––
Lukas Tonar
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:05 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Lukas Tonar below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 49 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Richard Wagner at 57.5%
49 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 1–0 Lukas Tonar Lukas Tonar has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1732 vs Tonar 1576
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 156 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 60% vs Tonar 40%
Wagner
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 70% vs Tonar 40%
Wagner
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner +1 · Tonar -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.44 / Tonar 2.63
Signal prob.72% / 29%
Edge (Wagner)+7.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12469687
Wagner1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 44 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it100% 26 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it75% 36 of 48
Tonar2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 21 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back24% 6 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeWagner1wins
AwayTonar0wins
Wagner leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricWagnerTonarW − TBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.016.0+17.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerTonarBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 145 vs 131 / 27251%48.2%74 / 145 vs 131 / 272Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.735.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.44/Tonar 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.5%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 22 · 18:30R. Wagner—1111113L. Tonar—2680
R. Wagner10
WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner1.61111111113R. Pacha2.20613691LSep 5 · 16:59R. Wagner1.775560M. Pikous1.931111113LSep 5 · 16:00M. Sychra1.7311911113R. Wagner2.00911791LSep 5 · 15:00M. Pikous2.20101111123R. Wagner1.611288101WSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WSep 4 · 13:00R. Wagner1.671191111113P. Saleny2.1013115452LSep 4 · 12:00V. Vejvoda2.50111013113R. Wagner1.508121151
L. Tonar10
LAug 22 · 20:58L. Tonar1.83911111072D. Sidletskyi1.83119412113WAug 22 · 20:30D. Sidletskyi1.6710960L. Tonar2.101211113LAug 22 · 19:30L. Tonar1.7351040D. Hofman2.001112113LJul 30 · 21:00L. Tonar1.61981121K. Kapras2.2011115113WJul 30 · 20:30L. Tonar1.57111139113K. Kapras2.2575111192LJul 30 · 19:00L. Tonar1.67511581J. Tazler2.1011411113LJul 30 · 18:00V. Vejvoda1.61491111113L. Tonar2.2011117992WJul 28 · 21:30L. Tonar1.3891111123J. Tazler2.801156101WJul 28 · 20:30A. Brazda1.4011119682L. Tonar2.75981111113WJul 28 · 19:30L. Tonar1.911111113K. Kapras1.806490
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