TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12320859
Played Jul 30Finished
Lukas Tonar
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117115311911119
Karel Kapras
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:58 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeLukas Tonar to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Tonar above · Karel Kapras below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 88 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Lukas Tonar at 59.9%
88 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Tonar 7–8 Karel Kapras Lukas Tonar has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:58What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Tonar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tonar 1568 vs Kapras 1519
Tonar
Correct
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tonar 60% vs Kapras 20%
Tonar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tonar 40% vs Kapras 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tonar -2 · Kapras -3
Kapras
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Tonar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapras form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTonar 1.57 / Kapras 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Tonar)+1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12320859
Tonar1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 29 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it63% 19 of 30
Kapras2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 15 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTonar6wins
AwayKapras4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTonar leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTonar55.6%5 of 9
AwayKaprasn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tonar9Kapras1n = 10Tonar took 9 of 10
S2Tonar6Kapras4n = 10Tonar took 6 of 10
S3Tonar5Kapras5n = 10split evenly
S4Tonar3Kapras5n = 8Kapras took 5 of 8
S5Tonar2Kapras3n = 5Kapras took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTonarKaprasT − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match42.136.8+5.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTonarKaprasBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 295 vs 183 / 36047.5%50.8%140 / 295 vs 183 / 360Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TonarTonar 1.57/Kapras 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.9%
Tonar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tonar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 28 · 19:30L. Tonar—1111113K. Kapras—6490
WJun 30 · 18:30L. Tonar—1111113K. Kapras—5250
WApr 8 · 21:00L. Tonar—111189113K. Kapras—95111152
WApr 8 · 18:30L. Tonar—11711113K. Kapras—711571
LMar 25 · 19:00L. Tonar—112691K. Kapras—61111113
WFeb 28 · 19:30L. Tonar—812711113K. Kapras—111011552
LFeb 24 · 22:03L. Tonar—11811372K. Kapras—611611113
LFeb 24 · 19:30L. Tonar—1111111262K. Kapras—461314113
WDec 14 · 09:00L. Tonar—111011113K. Kapras—912951
LOct 27 · 19:00L. Tonar—1211128112K. Kapras—1091411133
L. Tonar10
LAug 22 · 20:58L. Tonar1.83911111072D. Sidletskyi1.83119412113WAug 22 · 20:30D. Sidletskyi1.6710960L. Tonar2.101211113LAug 22 · 19:30L. Tonar1.7351040D. Hofman2.001112113LAug 22 · 18:30R. Wagner1.441111113L. Tonar2.632680LJul 30 · 21:00L. Tonar1.61981121K. Kapras2.2011115113LJul 30 · 19:00L. Tonar1.67511581J. Tazler2.1011411113LJul 30 · 18:00V. Vejvoda1.61491111113L. Tonar2.2011117992WJul 28 · 21:30L. Tonar1.3891111123J. Tazler2.801156101WJul 28 · 20:30A. Brazda1.4011119682L. Tonar2.75981111113WJul 28 · 19:30L. Tonar1.911111113K. Kapras1.806490
K. Kapras10
LSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492LSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma2.20117117113K. Kapras1.6141161152WSep 1 · 19:30K. Kapras2.1071111113J. Stolfa1.67119651LSep 1 · 18:30S. Kadavy2.00111410123K. Kapras1.7391212101WAug 26 · 20:59J. Hradecky1.91611671K. Kapras1.8011511113LAug 26 · 20:00K. Kapras2.259440V. Cermak1.571111113WAug 26 · 19:30J. Hradecky1.83691241K. Kapras1.83111110113LAug 26 · 18:30K. Kapras1.5371080M. Sobisek2.381112113WJul 30 · 21:00L. Tonar1.61981121K. Kapras2.2011115113LJul 28 · 19:30L. Tonar1.911111113K. Kapras1.806490
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