TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12310244
Played Jul 28Finished
Adam Brazda
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119118911611811
Lukas Tonar
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:36 and never touched — 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timeAdam Brazda to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdam Brazda above · Lukas Tonar below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 95 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Adam Brazda at 59.1%
95 points played in total.
H2H Adam Brazda 4–1 Lukas Tonar Lukas Tonar has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:36What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Brazda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Brazda
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brazda 1548 vs Tonar 1566
Tonar
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brazda 40% vs Tonar 20%
Brazda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brazda 40% vs Tonar 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Brazda -1 · Tonar +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Brazda) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tonar form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrazda 1.40 / Tonar 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Brazda)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12310244
Brazda1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite49% won 43 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it88% 22 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it64% 28 of 44
Tonar2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 21 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back24% 6 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeBrazda4wins
AwayTonar1wins
3 of 5 to a deciderBrazda leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrazda66.7%2 of 3
AwayTonarn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brazda3Tonar2n = 5Brazda took 3 of 5
S2Brazda5Tonar0n = 5Brazda took 5 of 5
S3Brazda3Tonar2n = 5Brazda took 3 of 5
S4Brazda1Tonar2n = 3Tonar took 2 of 3
S5Brazda2Tonar1n = 3Brazda took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricBrazdaTonarB − TBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match42.036.6+5.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrazdaTonarBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 429 vs 138 / 29145.5%47.4%195 / 429 vs 138 / 291Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrazdaBrazda 1.40/Tonar 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69.3%
Brazda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tonar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WFeb 24 · 21:00A. Brazda—1111113L. Tonar—5470
WMay 21 · 14:30A. Brazda—1212123L. Tonar—1010100
LFeb 18 · 21:00A. Brazda—111169132L. Tonar—651111153
WJan 24 · 22:30A. Brazda—412711113L. Tonar—111011692
WJan 24 · 20:30A. Brazda—611117113L. Tonar—11871152
A. Brazda10
WSep 6 · 13:30A. Brazda1.7311116143M. Wagner2.006911121WSep 6 · 12:00A. Brazda1.7311911113M. Wagner2.00711771WSep 6 · 11:30P. Saleny1.80119961A. Brazda1.9161111113WSep 6 · 10:00A. Brazda2.6391111143J. Louda1.441198121WSep 3 · 17:30J. Simecek1.6510740A. Brazda2.101211113LSep 3 · 16:30A. Brazda2.1095111132J. Simecek1.67111177113WSep 3 · 15:00A. Brazda1.61515811113S. Kasnik2.20111311792WSep 3 · 14:00V. Nohejl1.6115661172A. Brazda2.201311112113LSep 1 · 17:30A. Brazda1.40118771S. Kasnik2.7591111113WSep 1 · 16:00S. Kasnik2.001111761A. Brazda1.7313711113
L. Tonar10
LAug 22 · 20:58L. Tonar1.83911111072D. Sidletskyi1.83119412113WAug 22 · 20:30D. Sidletskyi1.6710960L. Tonar2.101211113LAug 22 · 19:30L. Tonar1.7351040D. Hofman2.001112113LAug 22 · 18:30R. Wagner1.441111113L. Tonar2.632680LJul 30 · 21:00L. Tonar1.61981121K. Kapras2.2011115113WJul 30 · 20:30L. Tonar1.57111139113K. Kapras2.2575111192LJul 30 · 19:00L. Tonar1.67511581J. Tazler2.1011411113LJul 30 · 18:00V. Vejvoda1.61491111113L. Tonar2.2011117992WJul 28 · 21:30L. Tonar1.3891111123J. Tazler2.801156101WJul 28 · 19:30L. Tonar1.911111113K. Kapras1.806490
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.