TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12470587
Played Aug 22Finished
Lukas Tonar
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5111012411––––
Denis Hofman
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:14 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Tonar to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Tonar above · Denis Hofman below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 53 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Lukas Tonar at 61.7%
53 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Tonar 9–4 Denis Hofman Denis Hofman has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:14What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tonar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Tonar
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tonar 1570 vs Hofman 1666
Hofman
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tonar 20% vs Hofman 40%
Hofman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tonar 40% vs Hofman 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tonar -2 · Hofman -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Tonar) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tonar form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTonar 1.73 / Hofman 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Tonar)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12470587
Tonar1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite49% won 25 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it67% 16 of 24
Hofman2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 112 of 236
Down 0–1, comes back29% 38 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back12% 8 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTonar6wins
AwayHofman4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTonar leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTonar66.7%4 of 6
AwayHofman50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tonar6Hofman4n = 10Tonar took 6 of 10
S2Tonar7Hofman3n = 10Tonar took 7 of 10
S3Tonar6Hofman4n = 10Tonar took 6 of 10
S4Tonar4Hofman3n = 7Tonar took 4 of 7
S5Tonar1Hofman2n = 3Hofman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTonarHofmanT − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.034.0+5.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTonarHofmanBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 270 vs 455 / 94748.2%48.1%130 / 270 vs 455 / 947Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TonarTonar 1.73/Hofman 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Tonar · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hofman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 29 · 19:30L. Tonar—91111113D. Hofman—118671
WMay 20 · 21:30L. Tonar—1111123D. Hofman—74100
LMay 20 · 20:00L. Tonar—11711682D. Hofman—711911113
WMay 11 · 21:28L. Tonar—1111113D. Hofman—9340
WMay 11 · 20:00L. Tonar—111111113D. Hofman—136661
WApr 22 · 20:58L. Tonar—1116411113D. Hofman—71811682
WApr 22 · 20:30L. Tonar—1111113D. Hofman—5440
LSep 25 · 20:00L. Tonar—119871D. Hofman—81111113
LSep 16 · 20:30L. Tonar—511841D. Hofman—11611113
LApr 29 · 18:30L. Tonar—131141162D. Hofman—153118113
L. Tonar10
LAug 22 · 20:58L. Tonar1.83911111072D. Sidletskyi1.83119412113WAug 22 · 20:30D. Sidletskyi1.6710960L. Tonar2.101211113LAug 22 · 18:30R. Wagner1.441111113L. Tonar2.632680LJul 30 · 21:00L. Tonar1.61981121K. Kapras2.2011115113WJul 30 · 20:30L. Tonar1.57111139113K. Kapras2.2575111192LJul 30 · 19:00L. Tonar1.67511581J. Tazler2.1011411113LJul 30 · 18:00V. Vejvoda1.61491111113L. Tonar2.2011117992WJul 28 · 21:30L. Tonar1.3891111123J. Tazler2.801156101WJul 28 · 20:30A. Brazda1.4011119682L. Tonar2.75981111113WJul 28 · 19:30L. Tonar1.911111113K. Kapras1.806490
D. Hofman10
WSep 5 · 20:59D. Hofman1.671011117113K. Schopf2.1012871192LSep 5 · 20:30R. Pacha1.6711118113D. Hofman2.10551161LSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:30K. Schopf1.913390D. Hofman1.801111113WSep 5 · 17:29D. Hofman1.671112112113M. Sychra2.0891471192WSep 5 · 16:30M. Pikous2.0081270D. Hofman1.731114113WSep 5 · 15:30D. Hofman2.0011117113M. Sychra1.73641141LSep 5 · 14:30R. Wagner1.7313911113D. Hofman2.001111781WSep 4 · 17:33M. Pikous2.05111081182D. Hofman1.65412113113LSep 4 · 16:00J. Stolfa2.5081111113D. Hofman1.50119881
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