TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12310735
Played Jul 28Finished
Lukas Tonar
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116114119––––
Karel Kapras
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:46 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarel Kapras to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Tonar above · Karel Kapras below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 52 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Karel Kapras at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Tonar 5–8 Karel Kapras Lukas Tonar has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:46What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kapras
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Kapras
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tonar 1552 vs Kapras 1545
Tonar
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tonar 20% vs Kapras 40%
Kapras
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tonar 40% vs Kapras 20%
Tonar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tonar -4 · Kapras -1
Tonar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kapras)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapras form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTonar 1.91 / Kapras 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kapras)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12310735
Tonar1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 21 of 48
Down 0–1, comes back24% 6 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Kapras1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 43 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it71% 27 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTonar5wins
AwayKapras5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTonar44.4%4 of 9
AwayKaprasn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tonar9Kapras1n = 10Tonar took 9 of 10
S2Tonar5Kapras5n = 10split evenly
S3Tonar4Kapras6n = 10Kapras took 6 of 10
S4Tonar3Kapras6n = 9Kapras took 6 of 9
S5Tonar2Kapras3n = 5Kapras took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTonarKaprasT − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match41.239.7+1.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTonarKaprasBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 290 vs 182 / 35547.2%51.3%137 / 290 vs 182 / 355Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaprasTonar 1.91/Kapras 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kapras · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tonar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 8 · 21:00L. Tonar—111189113K. Kapras—95111152
WApr 8 · 18:30L. Tonar—11711113K. Kapras—711571
LMar 25 · 19:00L. Tonar—112691K. Kapras—61111113
WFeb 28 · 19:30L. Tonar—812711113K. Kapras—111011552
LFeb 24 · 22:03L. Tonar—11811372K. Kapras—611611113
LFeb 24 · 19:30L. Tonar—1111111262K. Kapras—461314113
WDec 14 · 09:00L. Tonar—111011113K. Kapras—912951
LOct 27 · 19:00L. Tonar—1211128112K. Kapras—1091411133
WSep 17 · 21:30L. Tonar—1111113K. Kapras—7980
LSep 17 · 20:00L. Tonar—114541K. Kapras—31111113
L. Tonar10
LAug 22 · 20:58L. Tonar1.83911111072D. Sidletskyi1.83119412113WAug 22 · 20:30D. Sidletskyi1.6710960L. Tonar2.101211113LAug 22 · 19:30L. Tonar1.7351040D. Hofman2.001112113LAug 22 · 18:30R. Wagner1.441111113L. Tonar2.632680LJul 30 · 21:00L. Tonar1.61981121K. Kapras2.2011115113WJul 30 · 20:30L. Tonar1.57111139113K. Kapras2.2575111192LJul 30 · 19:00L. Tonar1.67511581J. Tazler2.1011411113LJul 30 · 18:00V. Vejvoda1.61491111113L. Tonar2.2011117992WJul 28 · 21:30L. Tonar1.3891111123J. Tazler2.801156101WJul 28 · 20:30A. Brazda1.4011119682L. Tonar2.75981111113
K. Kapras10
LSep 1 · 21:28D. Tuma1.91128511113K. Kapras1.80101111492LSep 1 · 20:30D. Tuma2.20117117113K. Kapras1.6141161152WSep 1 · 19:30K. Kapras2.1071111113J. Stolfa1.67119651LSep 1 · 18:30S. Kadavy2.00111410123K. Kapras1.7391212101WAug 26 · 20:59J. Hradecky1.91611671K. Kapras1.8011511113LAug 26 · 20:00K. Kapras2.259440V. Cermak1.571111113WAug 26 · 19:30J. Hradecky1.83691241K. Kapras1.83111110113LAug 26 · 18:30K. Kapras1.5371080M. Sobisek2.381112113WJul 30 · 21:00L. Tonar1.61981121K. Kapras2.2011115113LJul 30 · 20:30L. Tonar1.57111139113K. Kapras2.2575111192
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