TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12316889
Played Jul 28Finished
Lukas Tonar
Home
1.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111151161210––
Jakub Tazler
Away
2.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:16 and never touched — 67.0% is still 67.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Tonar to win
67.0%
67.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Tonar above · Jakub Tazler below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 75 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Lukas Tonar at 67.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Tonar 3–3 Jakub Tazler Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:16What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.38 (67%)
Tonar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tonar 1576 vs Tazler 1611
Tazler
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tonar 40% vs Tazler 60%
Tazler
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tonar 50% vs Tazler 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tonar +2 · Tazler -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Tonar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tazler form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTonar 1.38 / Tazler 2.80
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Tonar)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12316889
Tonar1.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 27 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it87% 13 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it62% 18 of 29
Tazler2.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 64 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back28% 21 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeTonar3wins
AwayTazler3wins
Level at 3–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTonar75%3 of 4
AwayTazlern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tonar4Tazler2n = 6Tonar took 4 of 6
S2Tonar4Tazler2n = 6Tonar took 4 of 6
S3Tonar2Tazler4n = 6Tazler took 4 of 6
S4Tonar2Tazler3n = 5Tazler took 3 of 5
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away350%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricTonarTazlerTonar − TazlerBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match37.036.3+0.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTonarTazlerBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 292 vs 357 / 66247.6%53.9%139 / 292 vs 357 / 662Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TonarTonar 1.38/Tazler 2.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67%
Tonar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tonar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJul 28 · 18:30L. Tonar—881121J. Tazler—11118113
LJul 28 · 17:00L. Tonar—9111681J. Tazler—11718113
WJul 28 · 14:00L. Tonar—11112113J. Tazler—561181
LJun 20 · 19:00L. Tonar—118591J. Tazler—71111113
WMar 15 · 17:00L. Tonar—1111113J. Tazler—7950
WMar 2 · 17:00L. Tonar—151111113J. Tazler—1351381
L. Tonar10
LAug 22 · 20:58L. Tonar1.83911111072D. Sidletskyi1.83119412113WAug 22 · 20:30D. Sidletskyi1.6710960L. Tonar2.101211113LAug 22 · 19:30L. Tonar1.7351040D. Hofman2.001112113LAug 22 · 18:30R. Wagner1.441111113L. Tonar2.632680LJul 30 · 21:00L. Tonar1.61981121K. Kapras2.2011115113WJul 30 · 20:30L. Tonar1.57111139113K. Kapras2.2575111192LJul 30 · 19:00L. Tonar1.67511581J. Tazler2.1011411113LJul 30 · 18:00V. Vejvoda1.61491111113L. Tonar2.2011117992WJul 28 · 20:30A. Brazda1.4011119682L. Tonar2.75981111113WJul 28 · 19:30L. Tonar1.911111113K. Kapras1.806490
J. Tazler10
LSep 7 · 02:58V. Vejvoda1.67118118123J. Tazler2.10911511102WSep 7 · 02:00K. Schopf2.385430J. Tazler1.531111113LSep 7 · 24:30J. Tazler2.001111991M. Sychra1.7313511113LSep 6 · 23:00J. Tazler2.38811111482J. Louda1.531191312113LSep 6 · 22:00V. Vejvoda1.731212123J. Tazler2.001010100WSep 6 · 17:00K. Schopf2.206440J. Tazler1.611111113LSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler2.25149511122M. Pikous1.571211119143WSep 6 · 15:00J. Tazler1.57118165113K. Schopf2.25411141142LSep 6 · 14:00R. Rose1.571311113J. Tazler2.2511870WJul 30 · 19:00L. Tonar1.67511581J. Tazler2.1011411113
Upcoming Matches
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