TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12320885
Played Jul 30Finished
Lukas Tonar
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511114511811––
Jakub Tazler
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Tonar to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Tonar above · Jakub Tazler below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 66 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Lukas Tonar at 58.7%
66 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Tonar 4–3 Jakub Tazler Jakub Tazler has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:59What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Tonar
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tonar 1577 vs Tazler 1662
Tazler
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tonar 60% vs Tazler 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tonar 50% vs Tazler 80%
Tazler
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tonar -1 · Tazler +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Tonar) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tazler form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTonar 1.67 / Tazler 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Tonar)+1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12320885
Tonar1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 29 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it63% 19 of 30
Tazler2.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 65 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back28% 21 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeTonar4wins
AwayTazler3wins
Tonar leads 4–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTonar75%3 of 4
AwayTazler66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tonar4Tazler3n = 7Tonar took 4 of 7
S2Tonar5Tazler2n = 7Tonar took 5 of 7
S3Tonar3Tazler4n = 7Tazler took 4 of 7
S4Tonar3Tazler3n = 6split evenly
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricTonarTazlerTonar − TazlerBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match37.935.7+2.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTonarTazlerBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 294 vs 365 / 67247.6%54.3%140 / 294 vs 365 / 672Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TonarTonar 1.67/Tazler 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.8%
Tonar · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tazler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 28 · 21:30L. Tonar—91111123J. Tazler—1156101
LJul 28 · 18:30L. Tonar—881121J. Tazler—11118113
LJul 28 · 17:00L. Tonar—9111681J. Tazler—11718113
WJul 28 · 14:00L. Tonar—11112113J. Tazler—561181
LJun 20 · 19:00L. Tonar—118591J. Tazler—71111113
WMar 15 · 17:00L. Tonar—1111113J. Tazler—7950
WMar 2 · 17:00L. Tonar—151111113J. Tazler—1351381
L. Tonar10
LAug 22 · 20:58L. Tonar1.83911111072D. Sidletskyi1.83119412113WAug 22 · 20:30D. Sidletskyi1.6710960L. Tonar2.101211113LAug 22 · 19:30L. Tonar1.7351040D. Hofman2.001112113LAug 22 · 18:30R. Wagner1.441111113L. Tonar2.632680LJul 30 · 21:00L. Tonar1.61981121K. Kapras2.2011115113WJul 30 · 20:30L. Tonar1.57111139113K. Kapras2.2575111192LJul 30 · 18:00V. Vejvoda1.61491111113L. Tonar2.2011117992WJul 28 · 21:30L. Tonar1.3891111123J. Tazler2.801156101WJul 28 · 20:30A. Brazda1.4011119682L. Tonar2.75981111113WJul 28 · 19:30L. Tonar1.911111113K. Kapras1.806490
J. Tazler10
LSep 7 · 02:58V. Vejvoda1.67118118123J. Tazler2.10911511102WSep 7 · 02:00K. Schopf2.385430J. Tazler1.531111113LSep 7 · 24:30J. Tazler2.001111991M. Sychra1.7313511113LSep 6 · 23:00J. Tazler2.38811111482J. Louda1.531191312113LSep 6 · 22:00V. Vejvoda1.731212123J. Tazler2.001010100WSep 6 · 17:00K. Schopf2.206440J. Tazler1.611111113LSep 6 · 16:30J. Tazler2.25149511122M. Pikous1.571211119143WSep 6 · 15:00J. Tazler1.57118165113K. Schopf2.25411141142LSep 6 · 14:00R. Rose1.571311113J. Tazler2.2511870LJul 28 · 21:30L. Tonar1.3891111123J. Tazler2.801156101
Upcoming Matches
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J. Tazler
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