TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467193
Played Aug 21Finished
Vitalii S Marushchak
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181210811118––
Vladyslav Mishchenko
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 61.8% is still 61.8%
Graded at full timeVitalii S Marushchak to win
61.8%
61.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii S Marushchak above · Vladyslav Mishchenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 79 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Vitalii S Marushchak at 61.8%
79 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii S Marushchak 28–22 Vladyslav Mishchenko Vladyslav Mishchenko has won 22 of their 50 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:16What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Marushchak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-22 in 50
Marushchak
Correct
gap of 6 in 50, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marushchak 1655 vs Mishchenko 1640
Marushchak
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marushchak 20% vs Mishchenko 60%
Mishchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marushchak 20% vs Mishchenko 50%
Mishchenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marushchak -2 · Mishchenko +3
Mishchenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Marushchak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mishchenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarushchak 1.53 / Mishchenko 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Marushchak)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12467193
Marushchak1.53
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 68 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it100% 38 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it82% 53 of 65
Mishchenko2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 44 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back18% 15 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarushchak7wins
AwayMishchenko3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMarushchak leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarushchak100%7 of 7
AwayMishchenko100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marushchak7Mishchenko3n = 10Marushchak took 7 of 10
S2Marushchak6Mishchenko4n = 10Marushchak took 6 of 10
S3Marushchak5Mishchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Marushchak5Mishchenko0n = 5Marushchak took 5 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarushchakMishchenkoMarushchak − MishchenkoBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.532.7+3.8per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarushchakMishchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime285 / 614 vs 195 / 41446.4%47.1%285 / 614 vs 195 / 414Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarushchakMarushchak 1.53/Mishchenko 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.8%
Marushchak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Marushchak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 13:10V. Marushchak—11128113V. Mishchenko—8101181
LAug 7 · 13:10V. Marushchak—710150V. Mishchenko—1112173
WAug 3 · 14:10V. Marushchak—1111113V. Mishchenko—6430
WJul 29 · 06:50V. Marushchak—1111113V. Mishchenko—7870
LJul 24 · 11:40V. Marushchak—57111172V. Mishchenko—111165113
LJul 17 · 15:40V. Marushchak—5550V. Mishchenko—1111113
WJul 13 · 13:40V. Marushchak—1111113V. Mishchenko—3590
WJul 8 · 06:50V. Marushchak—11119113V. Mishchenko—891181
WJul 6 · 14:40V. Marushchak—12139113V. Mishchenko—10111181
WJun 26 · 11:40V. Marushchak—121412113V. Mishchenko—10161091
V. Marushchak10
LSep 7 · 13:10V. Marushchak1.61811611102O. Kolbasenko2.20117117123LSep 7 · 11:10V. Marushchak1.7361090A. Lievshin2.001112113LSep 4 · 17:10V. Marushchak1.91101191192A. Yurkov1.80122111113WSep 4 · 15:10V. Voronenko2.25811441V. Marushchak1.5711911113WSep 4 · 14:10V. Marushchak1.7311118113A. Lievshin2.00821161WSep 4 · 13:10A. Hrabskyi1.9185110V. Marushchak1.801111133WSep 4 · 11:40V. Marushchak1.571111113V. Savoliuk2.259750LSep 2 · 11:50Y. Shmyndra2.2511119113V. Marushchak1.57581191LSep 2 · 10:50V. Marushchak1.80111311982A. Hrabskyi1.91915811113LSep 2 · 09:50V. Marushchak1.918460A. Yurkov1.801111113
V. Mishchenko10
LAug 26 · 11:50V. Mishchenko2.25811851O. Seliuchenko1.5711911113LAug 26 · 10:20V. Mishchenko2.385730O. Kolbasenko1.531111113LAug 26 · 08:50V. Mishchenko2.1017860A. Hrabskyi1.671911113WAug 26 · 07:20V. Mishchenko2.00115211113A. Lievshin1.7371111792LAug 26 · 05:50V. Mishchenko2.3856100A. Yurkov1.531111123LAug 21 · 17:10V. Mishchenko2.101012851A. Hrabskyi1.67121011113LAug 21 · 15:10V. Voronenko1.73641111113V. Mishchenko2.0011117362WAug 21 · 14:10V. Mishchenko2.2511124123A. Yurkov1.5781011101WAug 21 · 11:40V. Mishchenko1.831111113A. Lievshin1.835650WAug 14 · 17:10V. Mishchenko2.00912514113A. Yurkov1.731110111292
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