TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467102
Played Aug 21Finished
Marian Melisek
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119114––––
Evzen Ondracek
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeEvzen Ondracek to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMarian Melisek above · Evzen Ondracek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 55 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Evzen Ondracek at 54.8%
55 points played in total.
H2H Marian Melisek 6–9 Evzen Ondracek Marian Melisek has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:18What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Ondracek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Ondracek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melisek 1397 vs Ondracek 1440
Ondracek
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melisek 20% vs Ondracek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melisek 50% vs Ondracek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melisek -3 · Ondracek -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Ondracek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ondracek form (20%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelisek 2.38 / Ondracek 1.53
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Ondracek)-6.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12467102
Melisek2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 57 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back22% 15 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Ondracek1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 27 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelisek5wins
AwayOndracek5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelisek60%3 of 5
AwayOndracek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melisek5Ondracek5n = 10split evenly
S2Melisek4Ondracek6n = 10Ondracek took 6 of 10
S3Melisek4Ondracek6n = 10Ondracek took 6 of 10
S4Melisek4Ondracek4n = 8split evenly
S5Melisek3Ondracek2n = 5Melisek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelisekOndracekM − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.139.5−0.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelisekOndracekBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 458 vs 103 / 20248.3%51%221 / 458 vs 103 / 202Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OndracekMelisek 2.38/Ondracek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.8%
Ondracek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Melisek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 5 · 15:30M. Melisek—115111192E. Ondracek—811139113
LOct 22 · 17:05M. Melisek—7970E. Ondracek—1111113
LOct 22 · 15:00M. Melisek—6711101E. Ondracek—11113123
WOct 1 · 16:56M. Melisek—711124113E. Ondracek—115101142
WOct 1 · 16:00M. Melisek—11119113E. Ondracek—951171
LSep 15 · 16:00M. Melisek—11119842E. Ondracek—381111113
LJul 12 · 09:05M. Melisek—5970E. Ondracek—1111113
WJul 12 · 08:00M. Melisek—121011113E. Ondracek—1012961
WMay 12 · 16:33M. Melisek—115511123E. Ondracek—911115102
WMay 12 · 15:30M. Melisek—811117113E. Ondracek—11961132
M. Melisek10
WSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LSep 1 · 12:00M. Melisek2.2011811842M. Vorel1.61511311113LSep 1 · 10:30R. Slunecko1.57911911113M. Melisek2.2511911832WSep 1 · 10:00J. Jnr1.735890M. Melisek2.001111113LAug 30 · 16:33J. Hanacek1.53891211113M. Melisek2.38111110622WAug 30 · 15:30M. Melisek2.75611126143P. Abraham1.401181011122LAug 30 · 14:30M. Melisek2.50117761A. Dvoracek1.5021111113LAug 30 · 13:30M. Melisek2.20612761J. Hanacek1.61111011113WAug 28 · 12:54M. Vorel1.5311581282M. Melisek2.384111110113WAug 28 · 11:15J. Blazek1.8311161152M. Melisek1.83119118113
E. Ondracek10
LAug 27 · 16:59L. Tuma2.751111113E. Ondracek1.409180LAug 27 · 15:30J. Blazek2.63911116113E. Ondracek1.4411391182WAug 27 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.001011129113J. Jnr1.73126101172WAug 27 · 14:00E. Ondracek2.0011811113L. Tuma1.73911581WAug 21 · 16:44E. Ondracek1.83311611113M. Melisek1.8311811992LAug 21 · 16:00E. Ondracek1.7381161182J. Jnr2.00119115113LAug 21 · 14:30F. Husek2.7511611113E. Ondracek1.40611441LJul 30 · 20:15J. Hanacek1.83512411113E. Ondracek1.83111011592LJul 30 · 19:15E. Ondracek1.801251191J. Hanacek1.9114113113LJul 30 · 18:15E. Ondracek1.731051181M. Vorel2.0012119113
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