TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467169
Played Aug 21Finished
Evzen Ondracek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811119611115811
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Dufek Jnr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEvzen Ondracek above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 91 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jakub Dufek Jnr at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Evzen Ondracek 0–1 Jakub Dufek Jnr Evzen Ondracek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:17What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ondracek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ondracek 1413 vs Jnr 1412
Ondracek
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ondracek 0% vs Jnr 60%
Jnr
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ondracek 20% vs Jnr 60%
Jnr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ondracek -5 · Jnr +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Jnr) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ondracek form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOndracek 1.73 / Jnr 2.00
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Jnr)+11.0pp
Setka Cup · #12467169
Ondracek1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 27 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Jnr2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 88 of 169
Down 0–1, comes back37% 29 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeOndracek0wins
AwayJnr1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderJnr leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricOndracekJnrO − JBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match44.047.0−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOndracekJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 206 vs 235 / 45750.5%51.4%104 / 206 vs 235 / 457Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrOndracek 1.73/Jnr 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.3%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 21 · 16:00E. Ondracek—81161182J. Jnr—119115113
E. Ondracek10
LAug 27 · 16:59L. Tuma2.751111113E. Ondracek1.409180LAug 27 · 15:30J. Blazek2.63911116113E. Ondracek1.4411391182WAug 27 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.001011129113J. Jnr1.73126101172WAug 27 · 14:00E. Ondracek2.0011811113L. Tuma1.73911581WAug 21 · 16:44E. Ondracek1.83311611113M. Melisek1.8311811992LAug 21 · 14:30F. Husek2.7511611113E. Ondracek1.40611441LAug 21 · 14:00M. Melisek2.381111113E. Ondracek1.539940LJul 30 · 20:15J. Hanacek1.83512411113E. Ondracek1.83111011592LJul 30 · 19:15E. Ondracek1.801251191J. Hanacek1.9114113113LJul 30 · 18:15E. Ondracek1.731051181M. Vorel2.0012119113
J. Jnr10
LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113LSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 3 · 10:00J. Krejcik1.611111410153J. Jnr2.20531112132LSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 11:30P. Cizek2.104680J. Jnr1.671111113WSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151WSep 2 · 10:00J. Jnr1.8011911113M. Holub1.91911791LSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871LAug 27 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.001011129113J. Jnr1.73126101172
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