TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022780
Played Aug 27Finished
Jan Blazek
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911113119611118
Evzen Ondracek
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:12 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeEvzen Ondracek to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Blazek above · Evzen Ondracek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Evzen Ondracek at 60.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jan Blazek 6–10 Evzen Ondracek Jan Blazek has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:12What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Ondracek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Ondracek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Blazek 1394 vs Ondracek 1425
Ondracek
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Blazek 60% vs Ondracek 40%
Blazek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Blazek 50% vs Ondracek 30%
Blazek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Blazek +1 · Ondracek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Ondracek) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ondracek form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBlazek 2.63 / Ondracek 1.44
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Ondracek)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13022780
Blazek2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 49 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back23% 16 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 29
Ondracek1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 28 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBlazek3wins
AwayOndracek7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderOndracek leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBlazek66.7%2 of 3
AwayOndracek85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Blazek3Ondracek7n = 10Ondracek took 7 of 10
S2Blazek5Ondracek5n = 10split evenly
S3Blazek6Ondracek4n = 10Blazek took 6 of 10
S4Blazek1Ondracek5n = 6Ondracek took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBlazekOndracekB − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.734.9−2.2per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBlazekOndracekBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 379 vs 105 / 20743%50.7%163 / 379 vs 105 / 207Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OndracekBlazek 2.63/Ondracek 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Ondracek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Blazek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 6 · 16:18J. Blazek—5121151E. Ondracek—11141113
LMay 6 · 14:15J. Blazek—78130E. Ondracek—1111153
WFeb 6 · 17:26J. Blazek—81111113E. Ondracek—118961
LFeb 6 · 15:15J. Blazek—351151E. Ondracek—11115113
WOct 20 · 16:35J. Blazek—1111113E. Ondracek—3960
WOct 20 · 15:30J. Blazek—1111113E. Ondracek—9460
LSep 15 · 13:30J. Blazek—811111472E. Ondracek—114916113
LMay 19 · 21:00J. Blazek—1187101E. Ondracek—71111123
LMay 19 · 19:00J. Blazek—811971E. Ondracek—11911103
LMay 5 · 14:45J. Blazek—2470E. Ondracek—1111113
J. Blazek10
WSep 3 · 12:28J. Krejcik1.8391170J. Blazek1.831113113WSep 3 · 11:30J. Blazek1.731071513113J. Krejcik2.001211131162WSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 3 · 09:30J. Blazek2.0092111162J. Seeman1.73111199113WAug 28 · 12:23J. Hanacek1.4081411592J. Blazek2.751112811113LAug 28 · 11:15J. Blazek1.8311161152M. Melisek1.83119118113LAug 28 · 10:15J. Blazek2.6361080M. Vorel1.441112113LAug 28 · 09:15J. Blazek2.257290J. Hanacek1.571111113LAug 27 · 16:29J. Jnr1.801111123J. Blazek1.9176100LAug 27 · 14:30J. Blazek2.75961181L. Tuma1.4011117113
E. Ondracek10
LAug 27 · 16:59L. Tuma2.751111113E. Ondracek1.409180WAug 27 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.001011129113J. Jnr1.73126101172WAug 27 · 14:00E. Ondracek2.0011811113L. Tuma1.73911581WAug 21 · 16:44E. Ondracek1.83311611113M. Melisek1.8311811992LAug 21 · 16:00E. Ondracek1.7381161182J. Jnr2.00119115113LAug 21 · 14:30F. Husek2.7511611113E. Ondracek1.40611441LAug 21 · 14:00M. Melisek2.381111113E. Ondracek1.539940LJul 30 · 20:15J. Hanacek1.83512411113E. Ondracek1.83111011592LJul 30 · 19:15E. Ondracek1.801251191J. Hanacek1.9114113113LJul 30 · 18:15E. Ondracek1.731051181M. Vorel2.0012119113
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