TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12466961
Played Aug 21Finished
Filip Husek
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116611114114––
Evzen Ondracek
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:52 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeEvzen Ondracek to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFilip Husek above · Evzen Ondracek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 64 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Evzen Ondracek at 58.3%
64 points played in total.
H2H Filip Husek 2–5 Evzen Ondracek Filip Husek has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:52What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Ondracek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Ondracek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Husek 1453 vs Ondracek 1413
Husek
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Husek 40% vs Ondracek 20%
Husek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Husek 50% vs Ondracek 30%
Husek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Husek -1 · Ondracek -4
Ondracek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Ondracek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ondracek form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHusek 2.75 / Ondracek 1.40
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Ondracek)-8.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #12466961
Husek2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 16 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back26% 5 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Ondracek1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 27 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeHusek2wins
AwayOndracek5wins
2 of 7 to a deciderOndracek leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHusek66.7%2 of 3
AwayOndracek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Husek3Ondracek4n = 7Ondracek took 4 of 7
S2Husek1Ondracek6n = 7Ondracek took 6 of 7
S3Husek3Ondracek4n = 7Ondracek took 4 of 7
S4Husek2Ondracek3n = 5Ondracek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricHusekOndracekH − OBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match33.439.9−6.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHusekOndracekBasisWin rate · lifetime79 / 152 vs 104 / 20652%50.5%79 / 152 vs 104 / 206Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OndracekHusek 2.75/Ondracek 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.3%
Ondracek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Husek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 21 · 14:30F. Husek—11611113E. Ondracek—611441
LMay 12 · 13:30F. Husek—6790E. Ondracek—1111113
LApr 25 · 14:45F. Husek—37121192E. Ondracek—1111109113
LApr 14 · 14:00F. Husek—513491E. Ondracek—111111113
WApr 3 · 17:05F. Husek—114119103E. Ondracek—81191182
LApr 3 · 14:00F. Husek—1341091E. Ondracek—111112113
LJan 3 · 17:00F. Husek—8470E. Ondracek—1111113
F. Husek10
LSep 4 · 16:40P. Kotrbacek2.38127712113F. Husek1.531011111092LSep 4 · 15:30F. Husek2.0081191192L. Tuma1.73119115113LSep 4 · 14:30F. Husek2.0071111862P. Kotrbacek1.73118511113LSep 4 · 13:30F. Husek1.83511391K. Jirousek1.8311711113WAug 21 · 17:14J. Jnr1.731171251F. Husek2.0061114113WAug 21 · 15:30F. Husek1.911114116113M. Melisek1.80812131182LAug 21 · 13:30F. Husek1.9168131192J. Jnr1.801111119113WAug 12 · 16:33J. Mejzlik2.2011911672F. Husek1.61711411113WAug 12 · 15:30F. Husek1.8311115113J. Mejzlik1.83591171LAug 12 · 14:30F. Husek1.8382111172J. Jnr1.83111186113
E. Ondracek10
LAug 27 · 16:59L. Tuma2.751111113E. Ondracek1.409180LAug 27 · 15:30J. Blazek2.63911116113E. Ondracek1.4411391182WAug 27 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.001011129113J. Jnr1.73126101172WAug 27 · 14:00E. Ondracek2.0011811113L. Tuma1.73911581WAug 21 · 16:44E. Ondracek1.83311611113M. Melisek1.8311811992LAug 21 · 16:00E. Ondracek1.7381161182J. Jnr2.00119115113LAug 21 · 14:00M. Melisek2.381111113E. Ondracek1.539940LJul 30 · 20:15J. Hanacek1.83512411113E. Ondracek1.83111011592LJul 30 · 19:15E. Ondracek1.801251191J. Hanacek1.9114113113LJul 30 · 18:15E. Ondracek1.731051181M. Vorel2.0012119113
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