TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13023199
Played Aug 27Finished
Evzen Ondracek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121161210911117
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:00 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Dufek Jnr to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingEvzen Ondracek above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 99 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jakub Dufek Jnr at 54.5%
99 points played in total.
H2H Evzen Ondracek 0–1 Jakub Dufek Jnr Evzen Ondracek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:00What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jnr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ondracek 1425 vs Jnr 1374
Ondracek
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ondracek 40% vs Jnr 80%
Jnr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ondracek 30% vs Jnr 50%
Jnr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ondracek +2 · Jnr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOndracek 2.00 / Jnr 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jnr)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13023199
Ondracek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 19 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Jnr1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 89 of 138
Up 2–0, closes it92% 43 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it74% 63 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeOndracek0wins
AwayJnr1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderJnr leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricOndracekJnrO − JBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match44.047.0−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOndracekJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 207 vs 238 / 46650.7%51.1%105 / 207 vs 238 / 466Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrOndracek 2.00/Jnr 1.73
Miss
What we said
54%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ondracek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 21 · 16:00E. Ondracek—81161182J. Jnr—119115113
E. Ondracek10
LAug 27 · 16:59L. Tuma2.751111113E. Ondracek1.409180LAug 27 · 15:30J. Blazek2.63911116113E. Ondracek1.4411391182WAug 27 · 14:00E. Ondracek2.0011811113L. Tuma1.73911581WAug 21 · 16:44E. Ondracek1.83311611113M. Melisek1.8311811992LAug 21 · 16:00E. Ondracek1.7381161182J. Jnr2.00119115113LAug 21 · 14:30F. Husek2.7511611113E. Ondracek1.40611441LAug 21 · 14:00M. Melisek2.381111113E. Ondracek1.539940LJul 30 · 20:15J. Hanacek1.83512411113E. Ondracek1.83111011592LJul 30 · 19:15E. Ondracek1.801251191J. Hanacek1.9114113113LJul 30 · 18:15E. Ondracek1.731051181M. Vorel2.0012119113
J. Jnr10
LSep 3 · 12:58J. Seeman2.0011119113J. Jnr1.73681171LSep 3 · 12:00J. Jnr1.5791090J. Seeman2.251112113LSep 3 · 10:30J. Blazek2.501071111113J. Jnr1.5012116972LSep 3 · 10:00J. Krejcik1.611111410153J. Jnr2.20531112132LSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 11:30P. Cizek2.104680J. Jnr1.671111113WSep 2 · 11:00J. Jnr1.7311118113P. Moulis2.00971151WSep 2 · 10:00J. Jnr1.8011911113M. Holub1.91911791LSep 1 · 12:38M. Melisek1.6191211113J. Jnr2.201110871WAug 21 · 16:00E. Ondracek1.7381161182J. Jnr2.00119115113
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