TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022778
Played Aug 27Finished
Evzen Ondracek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119811115118––
Ladislav Tuma
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEvzen Ondracek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEvzen Ondracek above · Ladislav Tuma below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 74 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Evzen Ondracek at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Evzen Ondracek 22–11 Ladislav Tuma Ladislav Tuma has won 11 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:13What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tuma
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-11 in 33
Ondracek
Correct
gap of 11 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ondracek 1413 vs Tuma 1442
Tuma
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ondracek 20% vs Tuma 40%
Tuma
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ondracek 20% vs Tuma 50%
Tuma
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ondracek +1 · Tuma -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Tuma) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuma form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOndracek 2.00 / Tuma 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Tuma)+2.1pp
Setka Cup · #13022778
Ondracek2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog40% won 19 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back19% 5 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Tuma1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 59 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it89% 47 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOndracek6wins
AwayTuma4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOndracek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOndracek71.4%5 of 7
AwayTuma66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ondracek7Tuma3n = 10Ondracek took 7 of 10
S2Ondracek6Tuma4n = 10Ondracek took 6 of 10
S3Ondracek4Tuma6n = 10Tuma took 6 of 10
S4Ondracek4Tuma5n = 9Tuma took 5 of 9
S5Ondracek2Tuma1n = 3Ondracek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOndracekTumaO − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.938.5+1.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOndracekTumaBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 206 vs 235 / 47650.5%49.4%104 / 206 vs 235 / 476Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TumaOndracek 2.00/Tuma 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Tuma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ondracek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LApr 16 · 14:00E. Ondracek—11112782L. Tuma—791111113
WApr 1 · 16:49E. Ondracek—81111123L. Tuma—1178101
LApr 1 · 15:45E. Ondracek—1198101L. Tuma—61111123
LMar 19 · 14:30E. Ondracek—811761L. Tuma—11011113
WJan 20 · 17:30E. Ondracek—111112113L. Tuma—961441
WJan 20 · 15:30E. Ondracek—1111113L. Tuma—8490
LJan 19 · 17:36E. Ondracek—911351L. Tuma—11711113
WJan 19 · 16:00E. Ondracek—113911133L. Tuma—811118112
WDec 19 · 17:36E. Ondracek—1113114113L. Tuma—71541192
WDec 19 · 14:45E. Ondracek—111211113L. Tuma—614991
E. Ondracek10
LAug 27 · 16:59L. Tuma2.751111113E. Ondracek1.409180LAug 27 · 15:30J. Blazek2.63911116113E. Ondracek1.4411391182WAug 27 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.001011129113J. Jnr1.73126101172WAug 21 · 16:44E. Ondracek1.83311611113M. Melisek1.8311811992LAug 21 · 16:00E. Ondracek1.7381161182J. Jnr2.00119115113LAug 21 · 14:30F. Husek2.7511611113E. Ondracek1.40611441LAug 21 · 14:00M. Melisek2.381111113E. Ondracek1.539940LJul 30 · 20:15J. Hanacek1.83512411113E. Ondracek1.83111011592LJul 30 · 19:15E. Ondracek1.801251191J. Hanacek1.9114113113LJul 30 · 18:15E. Ondracek1.731051181M. Vorel2.0012119113
L. Tuma10
WSep 4 · 16:58K. Jirousek2.1010880L. Tuma1.671211113WSep 4 · 15:30F. Husek2.0081191192L. Tuma1.73119115113WSep 4 · 15:00L. Tuma1.911111113K. Jirousek1.809950LSep 4 · 14:00L. Tuma1.57101111922P. Kotrbacek2.25127811113LSep 2 · 16:58L. Tuma2.20811100V. Toman1.611113123WSep 2 · 16:00M. Vorel1.7377120L. Tuma2.001111143LSep 2 · 15:00V. Toman1.73611117113L. Tuma2.0011941172WSep 2 · 13:30P. Hlina2.25991461L. Tuma1.57111112113WAug 27 · 16:59L. Tuma2.751111113E. Ondracek1.409180WAug 27 · 16:00L. Tuma1.6791112113J. Jnr2.101131081
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