TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12323120
Played Jul 30Finished
Evzen Ondracek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012511119811––
Martin Vorel
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:59 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeEvzen Ondracek to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingEvzen Ondracek above · Martin Vorel below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Evzen Ondracek at 66.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Evzen Ondracek 7–2 Martin Vorel Martin Vorel has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:59What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ondracek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Ondracek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ondracek 1449 vs Vorel 1558
Vorel
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ondracek 40% vs Vorel 80%
Vorel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ondracek 50% vs Vorel 70%
Vorel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ondracek +1 · Vorel +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Ondracek) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vorel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOndracek 1.73 / Vorel 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Ondracek)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12323120
Ondracek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 30 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it80% 20 of 25
Vorel2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog51% won 93 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back33% 32 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeOndracek7wins
AwayVorel2wins
1 of 9 to a deciderOndracek leads 7–2, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOndracek100%6 of 6
AwayVorel66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ondracek6Vorel3n = 9Ondracek took 6 of 9
S2Ondracek5Vorel4n = 9Ondracek took 5 of 9
S3Ondracek7Vorel2n = 9Ondracek took 7 of 9
S4Ondracek3Vorel1n = 4Ondracek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home444%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricOndracekVorelO − VBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match35.328.8+6.5per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOndracekVorelBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 219 vs 419 / 78650.7%53.3%111 / 219 vs 419 / 786Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.239.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OndracekOndracek 1.73/Vorel 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Ondracek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vorel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJun 1 · 19:45E. Ondracek—11711113M. Vorel—311851
WNov 28 · 15:30E. Ondracek—116611113M. Vorel—81111942
WMay 29 · 16:00E. Ondracek—101611113M. Vorel—1214731
WApr 14 · 15:00E. Ondracek—1111113M. Vorel—7890
WApr 10 · 14:45E. Ondracek—1111103M. Vorel—7270
WMar 26 · 16:30E. Ondracek—1111113M. Vorel—4630
LFeb 13 · 21:40E. Ondracek—951241M. Vorel—111110113
WFeb 13 · 18:30E. Ondracek—1111113M. Vorel—8670
LJan 5 · 08:00E. Ondracek—12570M. Vorel—1411113
E. Ondracek10
LAug 27 · 16:59L. Tuma2.751111113E. Ondracek1.409180LAug 27 · 15:30J. Blazek2.63911116113E. Ondracek1.4411391182WAug 27 · 15:00E. Ondracek2.001011129113J. Jnr1.73126101172WAug 27 · 14:00E. Ondracek2.0011811113L. Tuma1.73911581WAug 21 · 16:44E. Ondracek1.83311611113M. Melisek1.8311811992LAug 21 · 16:00E. Ondracek1.7381161182J. Jnr2.00119115113LAug 21 · 14:30F. Husek2.7511611113E. Ondracek1.40611441LAug 21 · 14:00M. Melisek2.381111113E. Ondracek1.539940LJul 30 · 20:15J. Hanacek1.83512411113E. Ondracek1.83111011592LJul 30 · 19:15E. Ondracek1.801251191J. Hanacek1.9114113113
M. Vorel10
LSep 7 · 09:09M. Vorel1.67138111172O. Plyska2.10151188113LSep 7 · 08:00O. Plyska2.101151213113M. Vorel1.67511141192LSep 7 · 07:00J. Mejzlik2.001091111113M. Vorel1.7312119982LSep 7 · 05:30P. Hlina1.5311811113M. Vorel2.38511751LSep 4 · 09:23J. Puk1.83119116133M. Vorel1.83611711112WSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113WSep 4 · 07:00M. Vorel1.3681111113P. Moulis3.00113531WSep 4 · 06:00M. Vorel1.836111110113J. Puk1.8311891252LSep 2 · 16:28M. Vorel2.109870P. Hlina1.671111113LSep 2 · 16:00M. Vorel1.7377120L. Tuma2.001111143
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