TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12461973
Played Aug 20Finished
Stepan Rejent
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012611111––––
Radovan Debnar
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:34 and never touched — 74.5% is still 74.5%
Graded at full timeRadovan Debnar to win
74.5%
74.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingStepan Rejent above · Radovan Debnar below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 1-11
Point 51 set 3, 1-11 — our read held Radovan Debnar at 74.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Stepan Rejent 1–4 Radovan Debnar Stepan Rejent has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:34What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Debnar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Debnar
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rejent 1665 vs Debnar 1771
Debnar
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rejent 60% vs Debnar 80%
Debnar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rejent 50% vs Debnar 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rejent -1 · Debnar -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Debnar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Debnar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRejent 2.63 / Debnar 1.44
Signal prob.26% / 75%
Edge (Debnar)+10.0pp
Setka Cup · #12461973
Rejent2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 96 of 228
Down 0–1, comes back24% 30 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 65
Debnar1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 21 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeRejent1wins
AwayDebnar4wins
2 of 5 to a deciderDebnar leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRejentn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayDebnar80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rejent0Debnar5n = 5Debnar took 5 of 5
S2Rejent4Debnar1n = 5Rejent took 4 of 5
S3Rejent3Debnar2n = 5Rejent took 3 of 5
S4Rejent2Debnar3n = 5Debnar took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricRejentDebnarR − DBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set05−5of 5Avg pointsper match39.045.2−6.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRejentDebnarBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 781 vs 67 / 11546.9%58.3%366 / 781 vs 67 / 115Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DebnarRejent 2.63/Debnar 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.5%
Debnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Debnar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 16 · 20:14S. Rejent—614721R. Debnar—111211113
LAug 16 · 19:15S. Rejent—9121141R. Debnar—11147113
LAug 5 · 20:43S. Rejent—91113232R. Debnar—1171111113
LAug 5 · 18:45S. Rejent—10121012102R. Debnar—12101210123
WJul 30 · 15:15S. Rejent—51111113R. Debnar—116681
S. Rejent10
WSep 7 · 14:15O. Mezera2.257490S. Rejent1.571111113LSep 7 · 13:45M. Myler2.00121111113S. Rejent1.73148871LSep 6 · 16:29J. Chalupa1.4411812113S. Rejent2.638111071LSep 6 · 15:15S. Rejent2.63511951D. Gasparovic1.4411611113LSep 6 · 14:15S. Rejent2.634130J. Chalupa1.441111113WSep 6 · 13:15S. Rejent1.91691111153V. Burylov1.80111168132LSep 3 · 16:48S. Rejent1.504640A. Radkovsky2.501111113WSep 3 · 15:45S. Rejent1.531191111113O. Mezera2.3891141342WSep 3 · 14:15A. Radkovsky2.2059100S. Rejent1.611111123LSep 3 · 13:45J. Sr1.441111113S. Rejent2.635960
R. Debnar10
LAug 22 · 16:55V. Burylov2.101311113R. Debnar1.6711880WAug 22 · 15:15D. Gasparovic1.8375130R. Debnar1.831111153WAug 22 · 14:45R. Debnar1.73129711103V. Burylov2.00101111682WAug 22 · 13:45R. Debnar1.4081111103L. Heinzl2.75117951LAug 20 · 16:44R. Debnar3.001161617172T. Hlavacek1.368111815193WAug 20 · 15:45R. Debnar1.671111113L. Dobias2.106890LAug 20 · 13:45T. Hlavacek1.401112113R. Debnar2.7541050WAug 16 · 20:14S. Rejent2.50614721R. Debnar1.50111211113WAug 16 · 19:15R. Debnar1.6111147113S. Rejent2.209121141WAug 16 · 18:15R. Debnar1.731111123Z. Sedivy2.0089100
Upcoming Matches
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R. Debnar
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