TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12472099
Played Aug 22Finished
Radovan Debnar
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811117119105––
Lukas Heinzl
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 77.3% is still 77.3%
Graded at full timeRadovan Debnar to win
77.3%
77.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadovan Debnar above · Lukas Heinzl below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-5
Point 72 set 4, 10-5 — our read held Radovan Debnar at 77.3%
72 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Debnar 7–1 Lukas Heinzl Lukas Heinzl has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:39What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Debnar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Debnar
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Debnar 1785 vs Heinzl 1701
Debnar
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Debnar 60% vs Heinzl 40%
Debnar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Debnar 70% vs Heinzl 50%
Debnar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Debnar -1 · Heinzl -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Debnar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Debnar form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDebnar 1.40 / Heinzl 2.75
Signal prob.77% / 23%
Edge (Debnar)+11.0pp
Setka Cup · #12472099
Debnar1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 23 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Heinzl2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 40 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeDebnar7wins
AwayHeinzl1wins
3 of 8 to a deciderDebnar leads 7–1, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDebnar100%6 of 6
AwayHeinzln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Debnar6Heinzl2n = 8Debnar took 6 of 8
S2Debnar6Heinzl2n = 8Debnar took 6 of 8
S3Debnar4Heinzl4n = 8split evenly
S4Debnar5Heinzl1n = 6Debnar took 5 of 6
S5Debnar2Heinzl1n = 3Debnar took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricDebnarHeinzlD − HBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match42.233.5+8.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDebnarHeinzlBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 118 vs 345 / 62958.5%54.9%69 / 118 vs 345 / 629Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DebnarDebnar 1.40/Heinzl 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.3%
Debnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Debnar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WDec 15 · 17:43R. Debnar—1111113L. Heinzl—4970
WDec 15 · 14:45R. Debnar—111115113L. Heinzl—261761
WNov 24 · 20:15R. Debnar—13119113L. Heinzl—1141141
WNov 20 · 21:41R. Debnar—1011127113L. Heinzl—129101162
WNov 20 · 20:45R. Debnar—1111113L. Heinzl—5590
LNov 18 · 18:35R. Debnar—77121182L. Heinzl—1111108113
WOct 20 · 19:45R. Debnar—116311123L. Heinzl—411113102
WSep 3 · 19:15R. Debnar—11118113L. Heinzl—991111
R. Debnar10
LAug 22 · 16:55V. Burylov2.101311113R. Debnar1.6711880WAug 22 · 15:15D. Gasparovic1.8375130R. Debnar1.831111153WAug 22 · 14:45R. Debnar1.73129711103V. Burylov2.00101111682LAug 20 · 16:44R. Debnar3.001161617172T. Hlavacek1.368111815193WAug 20 · 15:45R. Debnar1.671111113L. Dobias2.106890WAug 20 · 14:15S. Rejent2.6310610R. Debnar1.441211113LAug 20 · 13:45T. Hlavacek1.401112113R. Debnar2.7541050WAug 16 · 20:14S. Rejent2.50614721R. Debnar1.50111211113WAug 16 · 19:15R. Debnar1.6111147113S. Rejent2.209121141WAug 16 · 18:15R. Debnar1.731111123Z. Sedivy2.0089100
L. Heinzl10
LSep 7 · 08:49M. Zelinka1.8311812113L. Heinzl1.839111091LSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113LSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121
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