TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12461936
Played Aug 20Finished
Radovan Debnar
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118119––––
Ladislav Dobias
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:01 and never touched — 58.8% is still 58.8%
Graded at full timeRadovan Debnar to win
58.8%
58.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadovan Debnar above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Radovan Debnar at 58.8%
56 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Debnar 10–6 Ladislav Dobias Ladislav Dobias has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:01What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Debnar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Debnar
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Debnar 1781 vs Dobias 1720
Debnar
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Debnar 80% vs Dobias 20%
Debnar
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Debnar 60% vs Dobias 40%
Debnar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Debnar +1 · Dobias -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Debnar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDebnar 1.67 / Dobias 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Debnar)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12461936
Debnar1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 21 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Dobias2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 35 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDebnar4wins
AwayDobias6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDebnar75%3 of 4
AwayDobias83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Debnar4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S2Debnar4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S3Debnar6Dobias4n = 10Debnar took 6 of 10
S4Debnar5Dobias3n = 8Debnar took 5 of 8
S5Debnar1Dobias3n = 4Dobias took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDebnarDobiasDebnar − DobiasBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.243.7−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDebnarDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime68 / 116 vs 393 / 70958.6%55.4%68 / 116 vs 393 / 709Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.141.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DebnarDebnar 1.67/Dobias 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.8%
Debnar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Debnar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 11 · 17:15R. Debnar—11121141L. Dobias—13146113
WAug 6 · 20:43R. Debnar—11912113L. Dobias—9111071
WAug 6 · 17:15R. Debnar—1212113L. Dobias—101090
LJul 30 · 16:18R. Debnar—127100L. Dobias—1411123
LJul 30 · 13:45R. Debnar—11118982L. Dobias—981111113
LJul 21 · 16:48R. Debnar—6913101L. Dobias—111111123
WJul 21 · 13:15R. Debnar—1611811113L. Dobias—18711792
LJun 26 · 13:30R. Debnar—28111292L. Dobias—1111810113
LMar 24 · 17:48R. Debnar—811411152L. Dobias—119118173
WMar 24 · 16:45R. Debnar—13911113L. Dobias—1111771
R. Debnar10
LAug 22 · 16:55V. Burylov2.101311113R. Debnar1.6711880WAug 22 · 15:15D. Gasparovic1.8375130R. Debnar1.831111153WAug 22 · 14:45R. Debnar1.73129711103V. Burylov2.00101111682WAug 22 · 13:45R. Debnar1.4081111103L. Heinzl2.75117951LAug 20 · 16:44R. Debnar3.001161617172T. Hlavacek1.368111815193WAug 20 · 14:15S. Rejent2.6310610R. Debnar1.441211113LAug 20 · 13:45T. Hlavacek1.401112113R. Debnar2.7541050WAug 16 · 20:14S. Rejent2.50614721R. Debnar1.50111211113WAug 16 · 19:15R. Debnar1.6111147113S. Rejent2.209121141WAug 16 · 18:15R. Debnar1.731111123Z. Sedivy2.0089100
L. Dobias10
LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113WAug 28 · 07:45L. Dobias1.73911913113V. Burylov2.00115111192LAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681LAug 28 · 05:45M. Zelinka2.1081111123L. Dobias1.671194101WAug 26 · 12:13L. Dobias1.91911712113P. Wasik1.80115111062LAug 26 · 11:45L. Heinzl2.251213113L. Dobias1.57101190WAug 26 · 10:45M. Kocvara2.5031111982L. Dobias1.50119611113WAug 26 · 09:15P. Wasik1.808880L. Dobias1.911111113WAug 25 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.1061111532L. Dobias1.67113811113LAug 25 · 07:45L. Dobias1.61111091152M. Zelinka2.20912113113
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