TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12439794
Played Aug 16Finished
Radim Pavelka
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121210611115611
Lubos Krticka
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:45 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeLubos Krticka to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Pavelka above · Lubos Krticka below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 94 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Lubos Krticka at 68.5%
94 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pavelka 4–14 Lubos Krticka Radim Pavelka has won 4 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:45What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Krticka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-14 in 18
Krticka
Correct
gap of 10 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavelka 1559 vs Krticka 1593
Krticka
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavelka 40% vs Krticka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavelka 20% vs Krticka 40%
Krticka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavelka +1 · Krticka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Krticka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krticka form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavelka 2.63 / Krticka 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 69%
Edge (Krticka)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12439794
Pavelka2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 80 of 198
Down 0–1, comes back23% 26 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 50
Krticka1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 24 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavelka3wins
AwayKrticka7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKrticka leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavelka100%3 of 3
AwayKrticka100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavelka3Krticka7n = 10Krticka took 7 of 10
S2Pavelka3Krticka7n = 10Krticka took 7 of 10
S3Pavelka3Krticka7n = 10Krticka took 7 of 10
S4Pavelka4Krticka2n = 6Pavelka took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavelkaKrtickaP − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.037.1−3.1per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavelkaKrtickaBasisWin rate · lifetime441 / 879 vs 90 / 19050.2%47.4%441 / 879 vs 90 / 190Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.135.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrtickaPavelka 2.63/Krticka 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.5%
Krticka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krticka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 19:00R. Pavelka—101261162L. Krticka—1210115113
LJun 21 · 21:00R. Pavelka—891181L. Krticka—11119113
WJun 21 · 20:30R. Pavelka—111311113L. Krticka—715821
WMay 24 · 18:30R. Pavelka—11118123L. Krticka—8511101
LMay 12 · 20:58R. Pavelka—7790L. Krticka—1111113
LMay 12 · 19:30R. Pavelka—9770L. Krticka—1111113
WApr 26 · 18:00R. Pavelka—14811123L. Krticka—12116101
LApr 12 · 20:30R. Pavelka—10680L. Krticka—1211113
LMar 29 · 20:58R. Pavelka—511971L. Krticka—11811113
LMar 29 · 20:00R. Pavelka—91050L. Krticka—1112113
R. Pavelka10
WSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0012811113R. Pavelka1.731011781WSep 6 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.6711156113J. Prokupek2.106131121LSep 5 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.361111113R. Pavelka3.008550LSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.2581111113R. Pavelka3.75117471WSep 5 · 07:30R. Pavelka2.251161111113T. Holik1.5751113792WSep 5 · 06:30M. Sedlak1.806780R. Pavelka1.911111113LSep 4 · 17:30F. Just1.301311113R. Pavelka3.4011930WSep 4 · 16:00R. Pavelka1.7313115113D. Parhomenko2.001151191
L. Krticka10
WAug 16 · 21:29F. Just1.6181070L. Krticka2.201112113LAug 16 · 20:00J. Stolfa1.501111113L. Krticka2.506080WAug 16 · 18:30L. Krticka2.75111495113F. Just1.40612111182WAug 13 · 21:00K. Kapras1.36911111192L. Krticka3.00117613113LAug 13 · 20:00D. Tuma1.3611129113L. Krticka3.007101181LAug 13 · 19:00K. Kapras1.4411123133L. Krticka2.6371011111LAug 13 · 18:30L. Krticka2.635111051F. Just1.4411612113LAug 5 · 21:30L. Krticka1.7751161142M. Vedmoch1.93117118113WAug 5 · 20:00L. Krticka2.50111211113M. Vedmoch1.501310681LAug 5 · 19:30P. Fojt2.00116118113L. Krticka1.7331191112
Upcoming Matches
R. Pavelka
L. Krticka
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.