TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12409348
Played Aug 12Finished
Jakub Folwarski
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611112117111––
Daniel Bak
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:32 and never touched — 65.2% is still 65.2%
Graded at full timeJakub Folwarski to win
65.2%
65.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Folwarski above · Daniel Bak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-1
Point 60 set 4, 11-1 — our read held Jakub Folwarski at 65.2%
60 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Folwarski 1–0 Daniel Bak Daniel Bak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:32What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Folwarski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Folwarski 2163 vs Bak 1920
Folwarski
Correct
both rated, 243 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Folwarski 80% vs Bak 40%
Folwarski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Folwarski 90% vs Bak 50%
Folwarski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Folwarski +1 · Bak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Folwarski) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Folwarski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFolwarski 1.50 / Bak 2.50
Signal prob.70% / 31%
Edge (Folwarski)+7.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12409348
Folwarski1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite76% won 162 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it99% 68 of 69
Up 1–0, closes it89% 98 of 110
Bak2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeFolwarski1wins
AwayBak0wins
Folwarski leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricFolwarskiBakF − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match39.021.0+18.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFolwarskiBakBasisWin rate · lifetime293 / 393 vs 9 / 2074.6%45%293 / 393 vs 9 / 20Avg sets wonper match2.52.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.141.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FolwarskiFolwarski 1.50/Bak 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Folwarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Folwarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 12 · 16:00J. Folwarski—61111113D. Bak—112711
J. Folwarski10
WSep 7 · 12:55P. David2.201297101J. Folwarski1.61101111123LSep 7 · 12:05J. Folwarski1.5711811982J. Kosowski2.25911711113WSep 7 · 09:40K. Kolodziej4.5011781192J. Folwarski1.17511117113WAug 13 · 13:45J. Folwarski1.201111113K. Kolodziej4.338790LAug 13 · 12:30J. Folwarski1.3313711862M. Benes3.251111211113WAug 13 · 11:15J. Folwarski1.6171111113G. Felkel2.20118791WAug 13 · 10:00A. Abbasi2.637870J. Folwarski1.441111113WAug 13 · 09:20J. Folwarski1.301111113J. Braun3.405540WAug 13 · 08:40J. Folwarski1.141211113A. Daniel5.0010730WAug 13 · 07:15J. Folwarski1.441014119123M. Jadczyk2.631212711102
D. Bak10
WAug 12 · 16:50P. Cyrnek1.8061171152D. Bak1.91116117113LAug 12 · 15:20D. Bak1.579990A. Abbasi2.251111113LAug 12 · 13:40D. Bak1.6171371182A. Wiecek2.201111117113WAug 12 · 12:50S. Kolasa2.38911961D. Bak1.5311711113WAug 12 · 08:30P. Cyrnek1.83118961D. Bak1.8391111113LAug 12 · 07:20D. Bak1.53114781S. Kolasa2.3891111113WAug 12 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.2011311782D. Bak1.61911411113LAug 12 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.10713911113D. Bak1.67111111982WAug 12 · 03:25M. Domin2.75911771D. Bak1.4011411113WAug 11 · 14:35P. Cyrnek1.8311561162D. Bak1.83911115113
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