TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12403858
Played Aug 12Finished
Maciej Domin
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911114711711––
Daniel Bak
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:16 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeDaniel Bak to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Domin above · Daniel Bak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Daniel Bak at 66.3%
71 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:16What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Bak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Domin 1874 vs Bak 1910
Bak
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Domin 40% vs Bak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Domin 60% vs Bak 40%
Domin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Domin +1 · Bak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Bak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bak form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDomin 2.75 / Bak 1.40
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Bak)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12403858
Domin2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 69 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back26% 22 of 85
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Bak1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricDominBakBasisWin rate · lifetime514 / 974 vs 5 / 1152.8%45.5%514 / 974 vs 5 / 11Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.543.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BakDomin 2.75/Bak 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Bak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bak won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
M. Domin10
WSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203WSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162LSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123WSep 6 · 06:30M. Domin2.75111113113J. Braun1.405131161LSep 6 · 05:15M. Domin1.5711115192G. Poliniewicz2.25871111113WSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841
D. Bak10
WAug 12 · 16:50P. Cyrnek1.8061171152D. Bak1.91116117113LAug 12 · 16:00J. Folwarski1.5061111113D. Bak2.50112711LAug 12 · 15:20D. Bak1.579990A. Abbasi2.251111113LAug 12 · 13:40D. Bak1.6171371182A. Wiecek2.201111117113WAug 12 · 12:50S. Kolasa2.38911961D. Bak1.5311711113WAug 12 · 08:30P. Cyrnek1.83118961D. Bak1.8391111113LAug 12 · 07:20D. Bak1.53114781S. Kolasa2.3891111113WAug 12 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.2011311782D. Bak1.61911411113LAug 12 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.10713911113D. Bak1.67111111982WAug 11 · 14:35P. Cyrnek1.8311561162D. Bak1.83911115113
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