TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12403833
Played Aug 12Finished
Marcin Jadczyk
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119311114711811
Daniel Bak
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:15 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeDaniel Bak to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarcin Jadczyk above · Daniel Bak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 86 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Daniel Bak at 57.7%
86 points played in total.
H2H Marcin Jadczyk 1–1 Daniel Bak Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:15What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Bak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jadczyk 1921 vs Bak 1920
Jadczyk
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jadczyk 40% vs Bak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jadczyk 60% vs Bak 40%
Jadczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jadczyk -2 · Bak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Bak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bak form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJadczyk 2.20 / Bak 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Bak)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12403833
Jadczyk2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 142 of 306
Down 0–1, comes back30% 44 of 146
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 58
Bak1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite38% won 6 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it40% 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJadczyk1wins
AwayBak1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricJadczykBakJ − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match41.546.5−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJadczykBakBasisWin rate · lifetime929 / 1577 vs 9 / 2058.9%45%929 / 1577 vs 9 / 20Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.641.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BakJadczyk 2.20/Bak 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Bak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 12 · 06:05M. Jadczyk—11311782D. Bak—911411113
WAug 11 · 07:45M. Jadczyk—611114113D. Bak—11991172
M. Jadczyk10
LSep 7 · 07:45J. Kosowski1.8181111113M. Jadczyk1.86117871LSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591WSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282WSep 7 · 03:45P. David1.91117851M. Jadczyk1.8091111113WSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113LSep 4 · 14:10A. Grela2.10129147113M. Jadczyk1.671011121182LSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113WSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111WSep 4 · 10:50D. Michna1.836880M. Jadczyk1.831111113WSep 4 · 07:45S. Dosz2.38891161M. Jadczyk1.5311116113
D. Bak10
WAug 12 · 16:50P. Cyrnek1.8061171152D. Bak1.91116117113LAug 12 · 16:00J. Folwarski1.5061111113D. Bak2.50112711LAug 12 · 15:20D. Bak1.579990A. Abbasi2.251111113LAug 12 · 13:40D. Bak1.6171371182A. Wiecek2.201111117113WAug 12 · 12:50S. Kolasa2.38911961D. Bak1.5311711113WAug 12 · 08:30P. Cyrnek1.83118961D. Bak1.8391111113LAug 12 · 07:20D. Bak1.53114781S. Kolasa2.3891111113LAug 12 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.10713911113D. Bak1.67111111982WAug 12 · 03:25M. Domin2.75911771D. Bak1.4011411113WAug 11 · 14:35P. Cyrnek1.8311561162D. Bak1.83911115113
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