TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12403836
Played Aug 12Finished
Daniel Bak
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111311711117811
Adrian Wiecek
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Bak above · Adrian Wiecek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 97 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Adrian Wiecek at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Bak 1–2 Adrian Wiecek Daniel Bak has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:13What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Bak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bak 1948 vs Wiecek 1888
Bak
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bak 60% vs Wiecek 40%
Bak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bak 60% vs Wiecek 40%
Bak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bak +2 · Wiecek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Bak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBak 1.61 / Wiecek 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Bak)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12403836
Bak1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite40% won 4 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it43% 3 of 7
Wiecek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 101 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBak1wins
AwayWiecek2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderWiecek leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bak2Wiecek1n = 3Bak took 2 of 3
S2Bak0Wiecek3n = 3Wiecek took 3 of 3
S3Bak3Wiecek0n = 3Bak took 3 of 3
S4Bak1Wiecek2n = 3Wiecek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricBakWiecekB − WBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match43.045.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBakWiecekBasisWin rate · lifetime8 / 16 vs 780 / 141050%55.3%8 / 16 vs 780 / 1410Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match42.740.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BakBak 1.61/Wiecek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Bak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 12 · 04:55D. Bak—111111982A. Wiecek—713911113
LAug 11 · 13:20D. Bak—8111191A. Wiecek—11139113
WAug 11 · 05:15D. Bak—12413113A. Wiecek—10111181
D. Bak10
WAug 12 · 16:50P. Cyrnek1.8061171152D. Bak1.91116117113LAug 12 · 16:00J. Folwarski1.5061111113D. Bak2.50112711LAug 12 · 15:20D. Bak1.579990A. Abbasi2.251111113WAug 12 · 12:50S. Kolasa2.38911961D. Bak1.5311711113WAug 12 · 08:30P. Cyrnek1.83118961D. Bak1.8391111113LAug 12 · 07:20D. Bak1.53114781S. Kolasa2.3891111113WAug 12 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.2011311782D. Bak1.61911411113LAug 12 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.10713911113D. Bak1.67111111982WAug 12 · 03:25M. Domin2.75911771D. Bak1.4011411113WAug 11 · 14:35P. Cyrnek1.8311561162D. Bak1.83911115113
A. Wiecek10
LSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113WSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172WSep 4 · 11:15A. Grela1.838680A. Wiecek1.831111113LSep 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.331171121K. Kolodziej3.2513119113LSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.9111511113M. Jadczyk1.80911581LSep 4 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.9111311992A. Grela1.80811811113WSep 4 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.40111011113S. Dosz2.75712591WAug 12 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.10713911113D. Bak1.67111111982
Upcoming Matches
D. Bak
Nothing scheduled
A. Wiecek
Sep 8 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.00T. Spanik1.73—Sep 8 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.10M. Olejnik1.67—Sep 8 · 05:40A. Wiecek2.10J. Kosowski1.67—Sep 8 · 06:30A. Wiecek2.63J. Folwarski1.44—Sep 8 · 08:05A. Wiecek2.50P. David1.50—Sep 8 · 09:20A. Wiecek2.10J. Kosowski1.67—Sep 8 · 10:50A. Wiecek1.40K. Wloczko2.75—Sep 8 · 12:05A. Wiecek2.10M. Olejnik1.67—Sep 8 · 13:20A. Wiecek1.33K. Kolodziej3.25—Sep 8 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.00T. Spanik1.73—
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