TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12409259
Played Aug 12Finished
Piotr Cyrnek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611116711117511
Daniel Bak
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:03 and never touched — 60.4% is still 60.4%
Graded at full timePiotr Cyrnek to win
60.4%
60.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPiotr Cyrnek above · Daniel Bak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 86 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Piotr Cyrnek at 60.4%
86 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Cyrnek 1–2 Daniel Bak Piotr Cyrnek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cyrnek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cyrnek 1992 vs Bak 1871
Cyrnek
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cyrnek 60% vs Bak 40%
Cyrnek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cyrnek 50% vs Bak 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cyrnek +1 · Bak -3
Bak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Cyrnek) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bak form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCyrnek 1.80 / Bak 1.91
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Cyrnek)+7.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12409259
Cyrnek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 98 of 154
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it76% 67 of 88
Bak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeCyrnek1wins
AwayBak2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderBak leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cyrnek2Bak1n = 3Cyrnek took 2 of 3
S2Cyrnek1Bak2n = 3Bak took 2 of 3
S3Cyrnek0Bak3n = 3Bak took 3 of 3
S4Cyrnek2Bak1n = 3Cyrnek took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricCyrnekBakC − BBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match39.345.3−6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCyrnekBakBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 435 vs 8 / 1956.8%42.1%247 / 435 vs 8 / 19Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.740.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CyrnekCyrnek 1.80/Bak 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Cyrnek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 12 · 08:30P. Cyrnek—118961D. Bak—91111113
LAug 11 · 14:35P. Cyrnek—11561162D. Bak—911115113
WAug 11 · 06:30P. Cyrnek—411811113D. Bak—11811982
P. Cyrnek10
LSep 2 · 13:45P. Cyrnek1.5711711772M. Jadczyk2.25611911113WSep 2 · 12:30P. Cyrnek1.8315911113M. Olejnik1.831311961LSep 2 · 11:15P. Cyrnek1.50715118132K. Wloczko2.501113811153WSep 2 · 10:00P. David1.5011119972P. Cyrnek2.50861111113WSep 2 · 09:20P. Cyrnek1.4411511113K. Kolodziej2.63711781WSep 2 · 08:30P. Cyrnek1.8311211113M. Olejnik1.83211671LSep 2 · 06:55P. Cyrnek1.5071111692M. Jadczyk2.50114611113LSep 2 · 05:40P. Cyrnek1.309880D. Prokopcov3.401111113WSep 2 · 04:10P. Cyrnek2.201116143P. David1.61914120WSep 2 · 03:00P. Cyrnek1.4411812113K. Wloczko2.639111061
D. Bak10
LAug 12 · 16:00J. Folwarski1.5061111113D. Bak2.50112711LAug 12 · 15:20D. Bak1.579990A. Abbasi2.251111113LAug 12 · 13:40D. Bak1.6171371182A. Wiecek2.201111117113WAug 12 · 12:50S. Kolasa2.38911961D. Bak1.5311711113WAug 12 · 08:30P. Cyrnek1.83118961D. Bak1.8391111113LAug 12 · 07:20D. Bak1.53114781S. Kolasa2.3891111113WAug 12 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.2011311782D. Bak1.61911411113LAug 12 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.10713911113D. Bak1.67111111982WAug 12 · 03:25M. Domin2.75911771D. Bak1.4011411113WAug 11 · 14:35P. Cyrnek1.8311561162D. Bak1.83911115113
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