TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12397895
Played Aug 11Finished
Piotr Cyrnek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119511611115611
Daniel Bak
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–6Last 9Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePiotr Cyrnek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPiotr Cyrnek above · Daniel Bak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 86 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Piotr Cyrnek at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Piotr Cyrnek 1–0 Daniel Bak Daniel Bak has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:43What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Bak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Cyrnek 1972 vs Bak 1834
Cyrnek
Wrong
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cyrnek 80% vs Bak 20%
Cyrnek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cyrnek 70% vs Bak 33%
Cyrnek
Wrong
37pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cyrnek +4 · Bak -2
Cyrnek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cyrnek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bak form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCyrnek 1.83 / Bak 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Cyrnek)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12397895
Cyrnek1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Bak1.83
33%won 3 of 9 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest67%takes the first set · 6 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeCyrnek1wins
AwayBak0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderCyrnek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricCyrnekBakC − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match45.047.0−2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCyrnekBakBasisWin rate · lifetime242 / 425 vs 3 / 956.9%33.3%242 / 425 vs 3 / 9Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.643.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CyrnekCyrnek 1.83/Bak 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cyrnek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 11 · 06:30P. Cyrnek—411811113D. Bak—11811982
P. Cyrnek10
LSep 2 · 13:45P. Cyrnek1.5711711772M. Jadczyk2.25611911113WSep 2 · 12:30P. Cyrnek1.8315911113M. Olejnik1.831311961LSep 2 · 11:15P. Cyrnek1.50715118132K. Wloczko2.501113811153WSep 2 · 10:00P. David1.5011119972P. Cyrnek2.50861111113WSep 2 · 09:20P. Cyrnek1.4411511113K. Kolodziej2.63711781WSep 2 · 08:30P. Cyrnek1.8311211113M. Olejnik1.83211671LSep 2 · 06:55P. Cyrnek1.5071111692M. Jadczyk2.50114611113LSep 2 · 05:40P. Cyrnek1.309880D. Prokopcov3.401111113WSep 2 · 04:10P. Cyrnek2.201116143P. David1.61914120WSep 2 · 03:00P. Cyrnek1.4411812113K. Wloczko2.639111061
D. Bak10
WAug 12 · 16:50P. Cyrnek1.8061171152D. Bak1.91116117113LAug 12 · 16:00J. Folwarski1.5061111113D. Bak2.50112711LAug 12 · 15:20D. Bak1.579990A. Abbasi2.251111113LAug 12 · 13:40D. Bak1.6171371182A. Wiecek2.201111117113WAug 12 · 12:50S. Kolasa2.38911961D. Bak1.5311711113WAug 12 · 08:30P. Cyrnek1.83118961D. Bak1.8391111113LAug 12 · 07:20D. Bak1.53114781S. Kolasa2.3891111113WAug 12 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.2011311782D. Bak1.61911411113LAug 12 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.10713911113D. Bak1.67111111982WAug 12 · 03:25M. Domin2.75911771D. Bak1.4011411113
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