TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12403864
Played Aug 12Finished
Adrian Wiecek
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111311911119118
Daniel Bak
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdrian Wiecek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdrian Wiecek above · Daniel Bak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 101 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Adrian Wiecek at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Adrian Wiecek 1–1 Daniel Bak Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:13What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Bak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Wiecek 1888 vs Bak 1910
Bak
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wiecek 40% vs Bak 60%
Bak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wiecek 30% vs Bak 50%
Bak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wiecek +1 · Bak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Bak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWiecek 2.10 / Bak 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Bak)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12403864
Wiecek2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 101 of 232
Down 0–1, comes back18% 20 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 52
Bak1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite40% won 4 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it43% 3 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeWiecek1wins
AwayBak1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricWiecekBakW − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match42.039.5+2.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWiecekBakBasisWin rate · lifetime782 / 1412 vs 5 / 1155.4%45.5%782 / 1412 vs 5 / 11Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.143.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BakWiecek 2.10/Bak 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Bak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Wiecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 11 · 13:20A. Wiecek—11139113D. Bak—8111191
LAug 11 · 05:15A. Wiecek—10111181D. Bak—12413113
A. Wiecek10
LSep 4 · 15:00A. Wiecek2.38811581M. Jadczyk1.5311511113WSep 4 · 13:45A. Wiecek1.4411119113D. Michna2.63891191WSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172WSep 4 · 11:15A. Grela1.838680A. Wiecek1.831111113LSep 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.331171121K. Kolodziej3.2513119113LSep 4 · 08:30A. Wiecek1.539111181D. Michna2.3811713113WSep 4 · 06:55A. Wiecek1.9111511113M. Jadczyk1.80911581LSep 4 · 05:40A. Wiecek1.9111311992A. Grela1.80811811113WSep 4 · 04:10A. Wiecek1.40111011113S. Dosz2.75712591LSep 4 · 03:00A. Wiecek2.00951151A. Dosz1.7311118113
D. Bak10
WAug 12 · 16:50P. Cyrnek1.8061171152D. Bak1.91116117113LAug 12 · 16:00J. Folwarski1.5061111113D. Bak2.50112711LAug 12 · 15:20D. Bak1.579990A. Abbasi2.251111113LAug 12 · 13:40D. Bak1.6171371182A. Wiecek2.201111117113WAug 12 · 12:50S. Kolasa2.38911961D. Bak1.5311711113WAug 12 · 08:30P. Cyrnek1.83118961D. Bak1.8391111113LAug 12 · 07:20D. Bak1.53114781S. Kolasa2.3891111113WAug 12 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.2011311782D. Bak1.61911411113WAug 12 · 03:25M. Domin2.75911771D. Bak1.4011411113WAug 11 · 14:35P. Cyrnek1.8311561162D. Bak1.83911115113
Upcoming Matches
A. Wiecek
Sep 8 · 03:45A. Wiecek2.00T. Spanik1.73—Sep 8 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.10M. Olejnik1.67—Sep 8 · 05:40A. Wiecek2.10J. Kosowski1.67—Sep 8 · 06:30A. Wiecek2.63J. Folwarski1.44—Sep 8 · 08:05A. Wiecek2.50P. David1.50—Sep 8 · 09:20A. Wiecek2.10J. Kosowski1.67—Sep 8 · 10:50A. Wiecek1.40K. Wloczko2.75—Sep 8 · 12:05A. Wiecek2.10M. Olejnik1.67—Sep 8 · 13:20A. Wiecek1.33K. Kolodziej3.25—Sep 8 · 14:35A. Wiecek2.00T. Spanik1.73—
D. Bak
Nothing scheduled
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