TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12403846
Played Aug 12Finished
Daniel Bak
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119411711811––
Szymon Kolasa
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:15 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeDaniel Bak to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDaniel Bak above · Szymon Kolasa below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Daniel Bak at 60.8%
72 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Bak 1–1 Szymon Kolasa Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:15What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Bak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Bak 1920 vs Kolasa 1967
Kolasa
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bak 60% vs Kolasa 80%
Kolasa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bak 40% vs Kolasa 70%
Kolasa
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bak +1 · Kolasa +3
Kolasa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Bak) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolasa form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBak 1.53 / Kolasa 2.38
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Bak)-6.8pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #12403846
Bak1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite38% won 6 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it40% 4 of 10
Kolasa2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 56 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back34% 26 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back17% 6 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBak1wins
AwayKolasa1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBakKolasaB − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match35.038.5−3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBakKolasaBasisWin rate · lifetime9 / 20 vs 267 / 48545%55.1%9 / 20 vs 267 / 485Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match41.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BakBak 1.53/Kolasa 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Bak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolasa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 12 · 12:50D. Bak—11711113S. Kolasa—911961
LAug 12 · 07:20D. Bak—114781S. Kolasa—91111113
D. Bak10
WAug 12 · 16:50P. Cyrnek1.8061171152D. Bak1.91116117113LAug 12 · 16:00J. Folwarski1.5061111113D. Bak2.50112711LAug 12 · 15:20D. Bak1.579990A. Abbasi2.251111113LAug 12 · 13:40D. Bak1.6171371182A. Wiecek2.201111117113WAug 12 · 12:50S. Kolasa2.38911961D. Bak1.5311711113WAug 12 · 08:30P. Cyrnek1.83118961D. Bak1.8391111113WAug 12 · 06:05M. Jadczyk2.2011311782D. Bak1.61911411113LAug 12 · 04:55A. Wiecek2.10713911113D. Bak1.67111111982WAug 12 · 03:25M. Domin2.75911771D. Bak1.4011411113WAug 11 · 14:35P. Cyrnek1.8311561162D. Bak1.83911115113
S. Kolasa10
WSep 7 · 12:30S. Kolasa1.734111110113K. Kolodziej2.0011251282LSep 7 · 10:00P. David1.73141711113S. Kolasa2.001219361LSep 7 · 09:20S. Kolasa2.1011760J. Kosowski1.671311113WSep 7 · 08:30S. Kolasa1.4011115113G. Poliniewicz2.75381141WSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591LSep 7 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.00613791P. David1.73111111113LSep 7 · 04:10S. Kolasa2.386270J. Kosowski1.531111113LSep 7 · 03:00S. Kolasa1.830J. Zandecki1.830WSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751LAug 12 · 12:50S. Kolasa2.38911961D. Bak1.5311711113
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