TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12408342
Played Aug 12Finished
Tomas Fojtik
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5115111171012––
Jan Skvrna
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:42 and never touched — 62.7% is still 62.7%
Graded at full timeJan Skvrna to win
62.7%
62.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Fojtik above · Jan Skvrna below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 72 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jan Skvrna at 62.7%
72 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Fojtik 3–8 Jan Skvrna Tomas Fojtik has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:42What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Skvrna
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-8 in 11
Skvrna
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fojtik 1565 vs Skvrna 1673
Skvrna
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fojtik 40% vs Skvrna 80%
Skvrna
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fojtik 50% vs Skvrna 70%
Skvrna
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fojtik -1 · Skvrna +3
Skvrna
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Skvrna) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skvrna form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFojtik 2.20 / Skvrna 1.61
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Skvrna)+11.0pp
TT Cup · #12408342
Fojtik2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 62 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back31% 20 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Skvrna1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite58% won 227 of 390
Up 2–0, closes it97% 84 of 87
Up 1–0, closes it74% 164 of 221
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFojtik2wins
AwaySkvrna8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSkvrna leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFojtik33.3%1 of 3
AwaySkvrna85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fojtik3Skvrna7n = 10Skvrna took 7 of 10
S2Fojtik3Skvrna7n = 10Skvrna took 7 of 10
S3Fojtik5Skvrna5n = 10split evenly
S4Fojtik2Skvrna6n = 8Skvrna took 6 of 8
S5Fojtik1Skvrna2n = 3Skvrna took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFojtikSkvrnaF − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.643.7−4.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFojtikSkvrnaBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 289 vs 430 / 74048.8%58.1%141 / 289 vs 430 / 740Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkvrnaFojtik 2.20/Skvrna 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Skvrna · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skvrna won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 07:10T. Fojtik—5511101J. Skvrna—11117123
LAug 7 · 09:40T. Fojtik—1196101J. Skvrna—81111123
WJun 12 · 05:40T. Fojtik—11811113J. Skvrna—511781
LJun 11 · 05:40T. Fojtik—8135101J. Skvrna—111111123
LJun 8 · 11:15T. Fojtik—118911152J. Skvrna—811117173
LJun 8 · 05:45T. Fojtik—1231191J. Skvrna—14118113
LJun 5 · 10:10T. Fojtik—710100J. Skvrna—1112123
LJun 3 · 13:05T. Fojtik—61113832J. Skvrna—1171111113
WJun 3 · 10:40T. Fojtik—721119113J. Skvrna—111961142
LMay 29 · 13:10T. Fojtik—91980J. Skvrna—1121113
T. Fojtik10
LAug 18 · 08:45T. Fojtik1.731311841M. Raska2.0015711113LAug 18 · 07:45T. Fojtik1.80111176102L. Slavik1.91691111123LAug 18 · 06:45T. Fojtik1.833137131T. Lysek1.83111111153WAug 18 · 05:45T. Fojtik1.7311611113M. Raska2.00811761WAug 14 · 09:20T. Fojtik1.7213811113D. Jr2.001111561WAug 14 · 08:10T. Fojtik2.108101114143D. Pawlik1.671112912122WAug 14 · 06:40J. Krupnik1.80116581T. Fojtik1.9191111113WAug 14 · 06:10D. Jr1.839920T. Fojtik1.831111113LAug 12 · 08:40T. Fojtik2.108280T. Krenek1.651111113WAug 12 · 08:10T. Krenek1.6746111152T. Fojtik2.10111192113
J. Skvrna10
LSep 6 · 12:40J. Skvrna1.5711914472E. Precek2.258111211113LSep 6 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.7378100T. Krenek2.001111123LSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113WSep 6 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53131112113E. Precek2.381551071WSep 5 · 13:10M. Macurak1.90891191J. Skvrna1.7411118113WSep 5 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111177113J. Krupnik2.1069111152LSep 5 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.6171180M. Macurak2.201113113WSep 5 · 09:45J. Skvrna1.53115129113E. Precek2.38911101192LSep 4 · 17:10D. Skulina1.3611611113J. Skvrna3.00511681WSep 4 · 15:45F. Chaloupka2.201111581J. Skvrna1.6113911113
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