TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12428081
Played Aug 14Finished
Tomas Fojtik
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811101211914121412
Dominik Pawlik
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:25 and never touched — 58.8% is still 58.8%
Graded at full timeDominik Pawlik to win
58.8%
58.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Fojtik above · Dominik Pawlik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 113 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Dominik Pawlik at 58.8%
113 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Fojtik 2–3 Dominik Pawlik Tomas Fojtik has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:25What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Pawlik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fojtik 1590 vs Pawlik 1638
Pawlik
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fojtik 60% vs Pawlik 80%
Pawlik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fojtik 50% vs Pawlik 70%
Pawlik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fojtik +2 · Pawlik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Pawlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pawlik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFojtik 2.10 / Pawlik 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Pawlik)+3.0pp
TT Cup · #12428081
Fojtik2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 62 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back31% 20 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back10% 3 of 31
Pawlik1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 68 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it82% 55 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeFojtik2wins
AwayPawlik3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderPawlik leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFojtikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPawlik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fojtik2Pawlik3n = 5Pawlik took 3 of 5
S2Fojtik2Pawlik3n = 5Pawlik took 3 of 5
S3Fojtik3Pawlik2n = 5Fojtik took 3 of 5
S4Fojtik2Pawlik1n = 3Fojtik took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricFojtikPawlikF − PBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match35.635.0+0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFojtikPawlikBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 291 vs 197 / 38549.1%51.2%143 / 291 vs 197 / 385Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PawlikFojtik 2.10/Pawlik 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.8%
Pawlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Fojtik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 10 · 08:10T. Fojtik—8850D. Pawlik—1111113
LMar 3 · 22:07T. Fojtik—81191182D. Pawlik—118115113
LMar 3 · 20:40T. Fojtik—5101191D. Pawlik—11125113
WFeb 15 · 21:15T. Fojtik—1111113D. Pawlik—6770
WDec 31 · 11:10T. Fojtik—11614113D. Pawlik—8111261
T. Fojtik10
LAug 18 · 08:45T. Fojtik1.731311841M. Raska2.0015711113LAug 18 · 07:45T. Fojtik1.80111176102L. Slavik1.91691111123LAug 18 · 06:45T. Fojtik1.833137131T. Lysek1.83111111153WAug 18 · 05:45T. Fojtik1.7311611113M. Raska2.00811761WAug 14 · 09:20T. Fojtik1.7213811113D. Jr2.001111561WAug 14 · 06:40J. Krupnik1.80116581T. Fojtik1.9191111113WAug 14 · 06:10D. Jr1.839920T. Fojtik1.831111113LAug 12 · 08:40T. Fojtik2.108280T. Krenek1.651111113WAug 12 · 08:10T. Krenek1.6746111152T. Fojtik2.10111192113LAug 12 · 07:10T. Fojtik2.205511101J. Skvrna1.6111117123
D. Pawlik10
WSep 7 · 08:40D. Pawlik1.831171110113J. Przybyla1.8321161292WSep 7 · 07:40B. Mrowetz1.5011811772D. Pawlik2.50911711113WSep 7 · 07:10J. Przybyla1.801713119112D. Pawlik1.911911811133LSep 7 · 06:10D. Pawlik1.731411391L. Lasota2.0016811113LSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110LSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113LSep 6 · 06:45T. Krenek1.73119119133D. Pawlik2.00611911112LSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik1.61111195113D. Pawlik2.2088111182WSep 5 · 08:44J. Przybyla1.7363111182D. Pawlik2.00111189113LSep 5 · 08:15D. Pawlik1.839580J. Przybyla1.831111113
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