TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12452020
Played Aug 18Finished
Tomas Fojtik
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118611117116––
Michal Raska
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:36 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Fojtik to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Fojtik above · Michal Raska below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Tomas Fojtik at 63.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Fojtik 10–4 Michal Raska Michal Raska has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:36What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Fojtik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-4 in 14
Fojtik
Correct
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fojtik 1630 vs Raska 1569
Fojtik
Correct
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fojtik 80% vs Raska 100%
Raska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fojtik 70% vs Raska 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fojtik +4 · Raska +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Fojtik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Raska form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFojtik 1.73 / Raska 2.00
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Fojtik)+10.0pp
TT Cup · #12452020
Fojtik1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 27 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it59% 16 of 27
Raska2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 82 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back27% 19 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back16% 5 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFojtik7wins
AwayRaska3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFojtik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFojtik100%4 of 4
AwayRaska50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fojtik4Raska6n = 10Raska took 6 of 10
S2Fojtik7Raska3n = 10Fojtik took 7 of 10
S3Fojtik6Raska4n = 10Fojtik took 6 of 10
S4Fojtik5Raska4n = 9Fojtik took 5 of 9
S5Fojtik3Raska1n = 4Fojtik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFojtikRaskaF − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.739.5+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFojtikRaskaBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 294 vs 231 / 48549.7%47.6%146 / 294 vs 231 / 485Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FojtikFojtik 1.73/Raska 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Fojtik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fojtik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 16 · 18:15T. Fojtik—101111123M. Raska—1287101
LJul 7 · 09:10T. Fojtik—9117111M. Raska—11911133
WJul 7 · 05:40T. Fojtik—111179113M. Raska—88111142
WJun 28 · 15:15T. Fojtik—41114113M. Raska—1161231
WApr 27 · 07:10T. Fojtik—1111113M. Raska—8890
LApr 23 · 08:45T. Fojtik—143111192M. Raska—161116113
LApr 23 · 06:10T. Fojtik—8111191M. Raska—11913113
WApr 22 · 06:15T. Fojtik—114811113M. Raska—71111882
WApr 20 · 08:45T. Fojtik—71111113M. Raska—116551
WApr 20 · 07:45T. Fojtik—118155123M. Raska—9111311102
T. Fojtik10
LAug 18 · 08:45T. Fojtik1.731311841M. Raska2.0015711113LAug 18 · 07:45T. Fojtik1.80111176102L. Slavik1.91691111123LAug 18 · 06:45T. Fojtik1.833137131T. Lysek1.83111111153WAug 14 · 09:20T. Fojtik1.7213811113D. Jr2.001111561WAug 14 · 08:10T. Fojtik2.108101114143D. Pawlik1.671112912122WAug 14 · 06:40J. Krupnik1.80116581T. Fojtik1.9191111113WAug 14 · 06:10D. Jr1.839920T. Fojtik1.831111113LAug 12 · 08:40T. Fojtik2.108280T. Krenek1.651111113WAug 12 · 08:10T. Krenek1.6746111152T. Fojtik2.10111192113LAug 12 · 07:10T. Fojtik2.205511101J. Skvrna1.6111117123
M. Raska10
LAug 19 · 20:40D. Branny1.73111111113M. Raska2.00139761LAug 19 · 20:15M. Raska1.73113521J. Volny2.0061111113LAug 19 · 18:45D. Branny1.6791111113M. Raska2.10115791LAug 19 · 18:15T. Molin1.67411116113M. Raska2.1011561182WAug 18 · 13:20R. Sedlacek1.3311681192M. Raska3.25611118113WAug 18 · 12:15M. Raska2.2516128113D. Jr1.5714101171LAug 18 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.401111113M. Raska2.757970WAug 18 · 10:15A. Cizek1.61711581M. Raska2.2011611113WAug 18 · 08:45T. Fojtik1.731311841M. Raska2.0015711113WAug 18 · 08:15T. Lysek2.00911591M. Raska1.7311511113
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