TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12452022
Played Aug 18Finished
Michal Raska
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
16141210811117––
Dalibor Velky Jr
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:31 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeDalibor Velky Jr to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Raska above · Dalibor Velky Jr below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 89 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Dalibor Velky Jr at 58.9%
89 points played in total.
H2H Michal Raska 8–7 Dalibor Velky Jr Dalibor Velky Jr has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:31What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Raska 1570 vs Jr 1528
Raska
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Raska 60% vs Jr 40%
Raska
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Raska 70% vs Jr 40%
Raska
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Raska -1 · Jr +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Jr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRaska 2.25 / Jr 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Jr)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12452022
Raska2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 82 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back27% 19 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back16% 5 of 32
Jr1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite43% won 62 of 146
Up 2–0, closes it82% 28 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it60% 44 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRaska5wins
AwayJr5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRaska66.7%4 of 6
AwayJr75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Raska6Jr4n = 10Raska took 6 of 10
S2Raska3Jr7n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S3Raska6Jr4n = 10Raska took 6 of 10
S4Raska3Jr6n = 9Jr took 6 of 9
S5Raska3Jr2n = 5Raska took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRaskaJrR − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.240.7+0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRaskaJrBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 490 vs 217 / 44147.8%49.2%234 / 490 vs 217 / 441Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrRaska 2.25/Jr 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Raska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 21 · 07:10M. Raska—118116113D. Jr—91191182
LJul 8 · 17:40M. Raska—81112992D. Jr—1151011113
WJul 7 · 07:10M. Raska—1191011113D. Jr—71112872
WJul 1 · 07:10M. Raska—11711113D. Jr—611441
LJun 27 · 20:45M. Raska—3121091D. Jr—111012113
WJun 27 · 20:15M. Raska—111011113D. Jr—412861
LJun 4 · 05:40M. Raska—11811732D. Jr—611411113
LJun 1 · 18:45M. Raska—1141091D. Jr—61112113
LApr 9 · 15:45M. Raska—108100D. Jr—1211123
WMar 27 · 13:10M. Raska—511126113D. Jr—119101182
M. Raska10
LAug 19 · 20:40D. Branny1.73111111113M. Raska2.00139761LAug 19 · 20:15M. Raska1.73113521J. Volny2.0061111113LAug 19 · 18:45D. Branny1.6791111113M. Raska2.10115791LAug 19 · 18:15T. Molin1.67411116113M. Raska2.1011561182WAug 18 · 13:20R. Sedlacek1.3311681192M. Raska3.25611118113LAug 18 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.401111113M. Raska2.757970WAug 18 · 10:15A. Cizek1.61711581M. Raska2.2011611113WAug 18 · 08:45T. Fojtik1.731311841M. Raska2.0015711113WAug 18 · 08:15T. Lysek2.00911591M. Raska1.7311511113LAug 18 · 07:15M. Raska2.201177101L. Slavik1.6171111123
D. Jr10
LSep 6 · 09:20D. Jr1.987590T. Krenek1.731111113WSep 6 · 08:15D. Pawlik2.001251431D. Jr1.73141112113WSep 6 · 07:15D. Jr2.101111113L. Slavik1.678390LSep 6 · 05:45T. Krenek1.731111811123D. Jr2.00951113102LSep 4 · 12:40D. Jr1.4499100J. Przybyla2.631111123WSep 4 · 12:10D. Jr1.801311113J. Przybyla1.9111980LSep 4 · 10:40R. Sedlacek1.801111113D. Jr1.918890LSep 4 · 10:10J. Krupnik1.5711116113D. Jr2.25851181WSep 4 · 08:40J. Skvrna1.5776100D. Jr2.251111123LSep 4 · 08:10M. Macurak1.8051111113D. Jr1.91116471
Upcoming Matches
M. Raska
Nothing scheduled
D. Jr
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