TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12459823
Played Aug 19Finished
Michal Raska
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116311511211––
Jakub Volny
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:40 and never touched — 59.5% is still 59.5%
Graded at full timeMichal Raska to win
59.5%
59.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingMichal Raska above · Jakub Volny below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 60 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Michal Raska at 59.5%
60 points played in total.
H2H Michal Raska 9–8 Jakub Volny Jakub Volny has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:40What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Raska
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-8 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Raska 1541 vs Volny 1451
Raska
Wrong
both rated, 90 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Raska 40% vs Volny 80%
Volny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Raska 50% vs Volny 70%
Volny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Raska -2 · Volny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Raska) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Volny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRaska 1.73 / Volny 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Raska)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #12459823
Raska1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite44% won 40 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it58% 29 of 50
Volny2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 48 of 114
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRaska6wins
AwayVolny4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRaska leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRaska66.7%4 of 6
AwayVolny50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Raska6Volny4n = 10Raska took 6 of 10
S2Raska5Volny5n = 10split evenly
S3Raska7Volny3n = 10Raska took 7 of 10
S4Raska5Volny4n = 9Raska took 5 of 9
S5Raska1Volny2n = 3Volny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRaskaVolnyR − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.541.2+2.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRaskaVolnyBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 494 vs 150 / 31747.8%47.3%236 / 494 vs 150 / 317Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RaskaRaska 1.73/Volny 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.7%
Raska · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Volny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 19:10M. Raska—781111103J. Volny—11119382
WJul 10 · 20:40M. Raska—131214113J. Volny—11141271
WJul 10 · 20:10M. Raska—11113113J. Volny—861191
WJun 22 · 12:10M. Raska—71111123J. Volny—1159101
LApr 30 · 17:40M. Raska—11913872J. Volny—7111111113
LApr 19 · 18:45M. Raska—8121771J. Volny—111019113
LApr 3 · 05:45M. Raska—6141181J. Volny—11166113
WFeb 21 · 21:15M. Raska—1111133J. Volny—55110
LFeb 20 · 13:10M. Raska—111168112J. Volny—491111133
WFeb 9 · 10:15M. Raska—15911133J. Volny—13117111
M. Raska10
LAug 19 · 20:40D. Branny1.73111111113M. Raska2.00139761LAug 19 · 18:45D. Branny1.6791111113M. Raska2.10115791LAug 19 · 18:15T. Molin1.67411116113M. Raska2.1011561182WAug 18 · 13:20R. Sedlacek1.3311681192M. Raska3.25611118113WAug 18 · 12:15M. Raska2.2516128113D. Jr1.5714101171LAug 18 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.401111113M. Raska2.757970WAug 18 · 10:15A. Cizek1.61711581M. Raska2.2011611113WAug 18 · 08:45T. Fojtik1.731311841M. Raska2.0015711113WAug 18 · 08:15T. Lysek2.00911591M. Raska1.7311511113LAug 18 · 07:15M. Raska2.201177101L. Slavik1.6171111123
J. Volny10
WSep 5 · 17:13J. Volny2.2071A. Kanak1.6140WSep 5 · 16:15J. Volny1.8311711113T. Lysek1.83911981WSep 5 · 14:45L. Kantor1.679990J. Volny2.101111113LSep 5 · 14:15A. Kanak1.7314715113J. Volny2.0012111381LSep 4 · 17:05J. Volny1.8341151192K. Baros1.83119117113WSep 4 · 15:40A. Kanak1.676980J. Volny2.101111113WSep 4 · 15:10V. Reska2.1011115672J. Volny1.67981111113LSep 4 · 14:10J. Volny1.911181241K. Baros1.8081114113LAug 29 · 09:09J. Volny1.57811771O. Kus2.2511611113WAug 29 · 07:40J. Volny1.731111113V. Reska2.006960
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