TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12452032
Played Aug 18Finished
Michal Raska
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1177117111012––
Lukas Slavik
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:35 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Slavik to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Raska above · Lukas Slavik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 76 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Lukas Slavik at 58.7%
76 points played in total.
H2H Michal Raska 5–10 Lukas Slavik Michal Raska has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:35What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Slavik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Slavik
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Raska 1504 vs Slavik 1596
Slavik
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Raska 80% vs Slavik 60%
Raska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Raska 70% vs Slavik 40%
Raska
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Raska -1 · Slavik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Slavik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Raska form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRaska 2.20 / Slavik 1.61
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Slavik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12452032
Raska2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 84 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back25% 18 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 31
Slavik1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 36 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it80% 28 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRaska3wins
AwaySlavik7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSlavik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRaska40%2 of 5
AwaySlavik80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Raska5Slavik5n = 10split evenly
S2Raska4Slavik6n = 10Slavik took 6 of 10
S3Raska5Slavik5n = 10split evenly
S4Raska2Slavik7n = 9Slavik took 7 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRaskaSlavikR − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.340.30.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRaskaSlavikBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 496 vs 99 / 19347.6%51.3%236 / 496 vs 99 / 193Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.538.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlavikRaska 2.20/Slavik 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Slavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Slavik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 18 · 07:15M. Raska—1177101L. Slavik—71111123
LJul 4 · 18:15M. Raska—112711102L. Slavik—411117123
LJul 4 · 13:45M. Raska—1091291L. Slavik—121110113
WJun 8 · 13:15M. Raska—1511113L. Slavik—13750
WJun 8 · 09:40M. Raska—1111612113L. Slavik—64111452
LMay 19 · 11:10M. Raska—4111161L. Slavik—11136113
WMay 6 · 18:40M. Raska—91111113L. Slavik—111571
LApr 27 · 05:40M. Raska—9715111L. Slavik—111113133
LApr 23 · 08:10M. Raska—14131141L. Slavik—161113113
LApr 20 · 07:15M. Raska—1181391L. Slavik—71115113
M. Raska10
LAug 19 · 20:40D. Branny1.73111111113M. Raska2.00139761LAug 19 · 20:15M. Raska1.73113521J. Volny2.0061111113LAug 19 · 18:45D. Branny1.6791111113M. Raska2.10115791LAug 19 · 18:15T. Molin1.67411116113M. Raska2.1011561182WAug 18 · 13:20R. Sedlacek1.3311681192M. Raska3.25611118113WAug 18 · 12:15M. Raska2.2516128113D. Jr1.5714101171LAug 18 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.401111113M. Raska2.757970WAug 18 · 10:15A. Cizek1.61711581M. Raska2.2011611113WAug 18 · 08:45T. Fojtik1.731311841M. Raska2.0015711113WAug 18 · 08:15T. Lysek2.00911591M. Raska1.7311511113
L. Slavik10
LSep 6 · 13:10T. Krenek1.8613111113L. Slavik1.781111581WSep 6 · 12:15L. Slavik1.801111113E. Precek1.916990WSep 6 · 10:45J. Skvrna1.5731191182L. Slavik2.25114119113LSep 6 · 10:15T. Krenek1.73111118163L. Slavik2.00481111142WSep 6 · 08:50L. Slavik1.611613113D. Pawlik2.20141110WSep 6 · 07:45T. Krenek1.7311510111L. Slavik2.0071112133LSep 6 · 07:15D. Jr2.101111113L. Slavik1.678390WSep 6 · 06:15L. Slavik1.61111195113D. Pawlik2.2088111182LSep 1 · 13:15L. Slavik2.14116791J. Skvrna1.5881111113LSep 1 · 11:45J. Skvrna1.67111011133L. Slavik2.107128111
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