TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12451942
Played Aug 18Finished
Ales Cizek
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711116511811––
Michal Raska
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:11 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Raska to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAles Cizek above · Michal Raska below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 70 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Michal Raska at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Ales Cizek 9–5 Michal Raska Michal Raska has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:11What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cizek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Cizek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1578 vs Raska 1570
Cizek
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 40% vs Raska 60%
Raska
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 40% vs Raska 80%
Raska
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek +1 · Raska +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Cizek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Raska form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 1.61 / Raska 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Cizek)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #12451942
Cizek1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 52 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it76% 37 of 49
Raska2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog47% won 82 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back27% 19 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back16% 5 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCizek7wins
AwayRaska3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderCizek leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizek100%3 of 3
AwayRaska42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek3Raska7n = 10Raska took 7 of 10
S2Cizek5Raska5n = 10split evenly
S3Cizek4Raska6n = 10Raska took 6 of 10
S4Cizek6Raska3n = 9Cizek took 6 of 9
S5Cizek5Raska0n = 5Cizek took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCizekRaskaC − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.640.9−0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekRaskaBasisWin rate · lifetime205 / 418 vs 233 / 48849%47.8%205 / 418 vs 233 / 488Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CizekCizek 1.61/Raska 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.7%
Cizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Raska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 4 · 18:45A. Cizek—116411113M. Raska—31111772
WJul 1 · 05:40A. Cizek—941312113M. Raska—1111111052
WMay 21 · 18:10A. Cizek—101111113M. Raska—129681
LMay 18 · 19:45A. Cizek—7111071M. Raska—11312113
LMar 28 · 21:45A. Cizek—8111071M. Raska—11812113
LMar 28 · 21:15A. Cizek—9380M. Raska—1111113
WMar 27 · 13:50A. Cizek—101111113M. Raska—129821
WMar 27 · 12:10A. Cizek—114611113M. Raska—91111982
WJan 10 · 20:15A. Cizek—911143113M. Raska—118121192
WJan 9 · 20:40A. Cizek—118511113M. Raska—81111872
A. Cizek10
WSep 5 · 20:58K. Kleprlik1.53118581A. Cizek2.3871111113LSep 5 · 19:45K. Kleprlik1.611111113A. Cizek2.208670LSep 5 · 19:15I. Heuman1.73128116183A. Cizek2.001011611162LSep 5 · 18:15A. Cizek1.571010111192T. Lysek2.25121259113LSep 4 · 08:48A. Cizek1.5381341242L. Lasota2.3811111110113WSep 4 · 07:45A. Cizek1.80911711113L. Lasota1.9111611472LSep 4 · 06:45A. Cizek2.001112491T. Kindl1.7381411113WSep 4 · 05:45A. Cizek2.1011611113L. Dzida1.67811851LSep 2 · 20:48D. Skulina1.671311113A. Cizek2.1011480LSep 2 · 19:45D. Skulina2.101111123A. Cizek1.6749100
M. Raska10
LAug 19 · 20:40D. Branny1.73111111113M. Raska2.00139761LAug 19 · 20:15M. Raska1.73113521J. Volny2.0061111113LAug 19 · 18:45D. Branny1.6791111113M. Raska2.10115791LAug 19 · 18:15T. Molin1.67411116113M. Raska2.1011561182WAug 18 · 13:20R. Sedlacek1.3311681192M. Raska3.25611118113WAug 18 · 12:15M. Raska2.2516128113D. Jr1.5714101171LAug 18 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.401111113M. Raska2.757970WAug 18 · 08:45T. Fojtik1.731311841M. Raska2.0015711113WAug 18 · 08:15T. Lysek2.00911591M. Raska1.7311511113LAug 18 · 07:15M. Raska2.201177101L. Slavik1.6171111123
Upcoming Matches
A. Cizek
M. Raska
Nothing scheduled
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