TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12459094
Played Aug 19Finished
Tomas Molin
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411115116611118
Michal Raska
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Raska to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Molin above · Michal Raska below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 84 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Michal Raska at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Molin 11–8 Michal Raska Michal Raska has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:39What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Molin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-8 in 19
Molin
Correct
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molin 1516 vs Raska 1580
Raska
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molin 60% vs Raska 80%
Raska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molin 50% vs Raska 70%
Raska
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Molin +2 · Raska +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Molin) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Raska form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolin 1.67 / Raska 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Molin)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #12459094
Molin1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 54 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it69% 34 of 49
Raska2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 85 of 179
Down 0–1, comes back26% 19 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back15% 5 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolin6wins
AwayRaska4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMolin leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolin75%3 of 4
AwayRaska50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molin4Raska6n = 10Raska took 6 of 10
S2Molin6Raska4n = 10Molin took 6 of 10
S3Molin7Raska3n = 10Molin took 7 of 10
S4Molin4Raska3n = 7Molin took 4 of 7
S5Molin2Raska2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolinRaskaM − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.336.8+4.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolinRaskaBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 266 vs 236 / 49252.3%48%139 / 266 vs 236 / 492Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MolinMolin 1.67/Raska 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.8%
Molin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Molin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 18:10T. Molin—6850M. Raska—1111113
LAug 15 · 21:19T. Molin—1091211102M. Raska—1211109123
WAug 15 · 18:10T. Molin—1111113M. Raska—7940
WAug 15 · 16:50T. Molin—81111113M. Raska—115681
WAug 15 · 16:10T. Molin—711119123M. Raska—119811102
WJul 31 · 21:14T. Molin—815129113M. Raska—1113101182
LJul 31 · 19:45T. Molin—1698111M. Raska—141111133
WJul 26 · 20:50T. Molin—11119113M. Raska—431171
WJul 26 · 19:15T. Molin—1111113M. Raska—6840
LJul 12 · 13:25T. Molin—85111192M. Raska—111131113
T. Molin10
LSep 6 · 17:15T. Molin1.917128101T. Kindl1.80111011123WSep 6 · 16:10T. Molin1.83111149113L. Lasota1.8357111172WSep 6 · 14:40T. Kindl1.91813111192T. Molin1.801111913113LSep 6 · 14:10L. Dzida1.73411911133T. Molin2.00118118112WSep 2 · 16:44J. Przybyla1.801161261T. Molin1.9171114113LSep 2 · 15:45J. Przybyla1.80119514113T. Molin1.91911111272LSep 2 · 15:15K. Baros2.101111113T. Molin1.678770LSep 2 · 14:15T. Molin2.00118851L. Dzida1.7391111113WAug 19 · 21:10T. Molin1.731511113J. Volny2.0013350WAug 19 · 19:45D. Branny2.25311351T. Molin1.5711811113
M. Raska10
LAug 19 · 20:40D. Branny1.73111111113M. Raska2.00139761LAug 19 · 20:15M. Raska1.73113521J. Volny2.0061111113LAug 19 · 18:45D. Branny1.6791111113M. Raska2.10115791WAug 18 · 13:20R. Sedlacek1.3311681192M. Raska3.25611118113WAug 18 · 12:15M. Raska2.2516128113D. Jr1.5714101171LAug 18 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.401111113M. Raska2.757970WAug 18 · 10:15A. Cizek1.61711581M. Raska2.2011611113WAug 18 · 08:45T. Fojtik1.731311841M. Raska2.0015711113WAug 18 · 08:15T. Lysek2.00911591M. Raska1.7311511113LAug 18 · 07:15M. Raska2.201177101L. Slavik1.6171111123
Upcoming Matches
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