TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12454508
Played Aug 18Finished
Tomas Fojtik
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1315117811411––
Michal Raska
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:42 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Fojtik to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Fojtik above · Michal Raska below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 80 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Tomas Fojtik at 57.9%
80 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Fojtik 10–4 Michal Raska Michal Raska has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:42What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Fojtik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-4 in 14
Fojtik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fojtik 1599 vs Raska 1570
Fojtik
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fojtik 60% vs Raska 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fojtik 60% vs Raska 80%
Raska
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fojtik -2 · Raska +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Fojtik) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFojtik 1.73 / Raska 2.00
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Fojtik)+10.0pp
TT Cup · #12454508
Fojtik1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite47% won 27 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it59% 16 of 27
Raska2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 82 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back27% 19 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back16% 5 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFojtik7wins
AwayRaska3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFojtik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFojtik100%4 of 4
AwayRaska50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fojtik4Raska6n = 10Raska took 6 of 10
S2Fojtik7Raska3n = 10Fojtik took 7 of 10
S3Fojtik6Raska4n = 10Fojtik took 6 of 10
S4Fojtik5Raska4n = 9Fojtik took 5 of 9
S5Fojtik3Raska1n = 4Fojtik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricFojtikRaskaF − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.739.5+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFojtikRaskaBasisWin rate · lifetime146 / 297 vs 233 / 48849.2%47.8%146 / 297 vs 233 / 488Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FojtikFojtik 1.73/Raska 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Fojtik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Raska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 16 · 18:15T. Fojtik—101111123M. Raska—1287101
LJul 7 · 09:10T. Fojtik—9117111M. Raska—11911133
WJul 7 · 05:40T. Fojtik—111179113M. Raska—88111142
WJun 28 · 15:15T. Fojtik—41114113M. Raska—1161231
WApr 27 · 07:10T. Fojtik—1111113M. Raska—8890
LApr 23 · 08:45T. Fojtik—143111192M. Raska—161116113
LApr 23 · 06:10T. Fojtik—8111191M. Raska—11913113
WApr 22 · 06:15T. Fojtik—114811113M. Raska—71111882
WApr 20 · 08:45T. Fojtik—71111113M. Raska—116551
WApr 20 · 07:45T. Fojtik—118155123M. Raska—9111311102
T. Fojtik10
LAug 18 · 07:45T. Fojtik1.80111176102L. Slavik1.91691111123LAug 18 · 06:45T. Fojtik1.833137131T. Lysek1.83111111153WAug 18 · 05:45T. Fojtik1.7311611113M. Raska2.00811761WAug 14 · 09:20T. Fojtik1.7213811113D. Jr2.001111561WAug 14 · 08:10T. Fojtik2.108101114143D. Pawlik1.671112912122WAug 14 · 06:40J. Krupnik1.80116581T. Fojtik1.9191111113WAug 14 · 06:10D. Jr1.839920T. Fojtik1.831111113LAug 12 · 08:40T. Fojtik2.108280T. Krenek1.651111113WAug 12 · 08:10T. Krenek1.6746111152T. Fojtik2.10111192113LAug 12 · 07:10T. Fojtik2.205511101J. Skvrna1.6111117123
M. Raska10
LAug 19 · 20:40D. Branny1.73111111113M. Raska2.00139761LAug 19 · 20:15M. Raska1.73113521J. Volny2.0061111113LAug 19 · 18:45D. Branny1.6791111113M. Raska2.10115791LAug 19 · 18:15T. Molin1.67411116113M. Raska2.1011561182WAug 18 · 13:20R. Sedlacek1.3311681192M. Raska3.25611118113WAug 18 · 12:15M. Raska2.2516128113D. Jr1.5714101171LAug 18 · 10:45R. Sedlacek1.401111113M. Raska2.757970WAug 18 · 10:15A. Cizek1.61711581M. Raska2.2011611113WAug 18 · 08:15T. Lysek2.00911591M. Raska1.7311511113LAug 18 · 05:45T. Fojtik1.7311611113M. Raska2.00811761
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