TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12399301
Played Aug 11Finished
Vitalii Sydorenko
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117811111911911
Denys Boltnekov
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:54 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeDenys Boltnekov to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Sydorenko above · Denys Boltnekov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 89 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Denys Boltnekov at 66.5%
89 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Sydorenko 0–3 Denys Boltnekov Vitalii Sydorenko has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:54What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Boltnekov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Boltnekov
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sydorenko 1317 vs Boltnekov 1363
Boltnekov
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sydorenko 20% vs Boltnekov 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sydorenko 30% vs Boltnekov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sydorenko +1 · Boltnekov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Boltnekov) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boltnekov form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSydorenko 2.50 / Boltnekov 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Boltnekov)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12399301
Sydorenko2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 77 of 216
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 84
Boltnekov1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 13 of 23
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it71% 10 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSydorenko0wins
AwayBoltnekov3wins
2 of 3 to a deciderBoltnekov leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sydorenko1Boltnekov2n = 3Boltnekov took 2 of 3
S2Sydorenko1Boltnekov2n = 3Boltnekov took 2 of 3
S3Sydorenko2Boltnekov1n = 3Sydorenko took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricSydorenkoBoltnekovS − BBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match35.743.0−7.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSydorenkoBoltnekovBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 591 vs 14 / 2945.7%48.3%270 / 591 vs 14 / 29Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BoltnekovSydorenko 2.50/Boltnekov 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Boltnekov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Boltnekov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 4 · 13:05V. Sydorenko—1181110112D. Boltnekov—511812133
LJul 28 · 17:25V. Sydorenko—71111752D. Boltnekov—115911113
LJul 21 · 15:03V. Sydorenko—6630D. Boltnekov—1111113
V. Sydorenko10
LSep 3 · 19:35V. Sydorenko2.63713481D. Boltenkov1.44111111113WSep 3 · 17:35Y. Bielokon1.801291191V. Sydorenko1.9114114113WSep 3 · 15:35A. Azarov1.8051211842V. Sydorenko1.911110711113WSep 3 · 14:35V. Sydorenko2.5011511113I. Elfemov1.50811791LSep 3 · 13:35V. Chumak1.7312311113V. Sydorenko2.001011681LSep 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko3.005111061V. Kaganovych1.3611712113LSep 1 · 17:55V. Sydorenko2.63671161A. Lifanov1.4411119113LSep 1 · 16:25V. Sydorenko2.501141381V. Hainiuk1.5041115113WSep 1 · 14:55V. Sydorenko2.631111911123I. Elfemov1.44761113102LSep 1 · 13:25V. Sydorenko3.4097130V. Sharpai1.301111153
D. Boltnekov10
LAug 13 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.801111113D. Boltnekov1.917960LAug 13 · 18:05D. Boltnekov1.444580R. Serhyenko2.631111113LAug 13 · 16:05I. Elfemov2.001111113D. Boltnekov1.732740WAug 13 · 14:05M. Skliar1.83561171D. Boltnekov1.8311115113WAug 13 · 13:05D. Patalakha1.835970D. Boltnekov1.831111113WAug 11 · 19:05F. Chashchin2.507480D. Boltnekov1.501111113WAug 11 · 18:05I. Elfemov1.575690D. Boltnekov2.251111113LAug 11 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.831112113D. Boltnekov1.8381080LAug 11 · 12:35V. Kaganovych1.501111105113D. Boltnekov2.5073121192WAug 6 · 12:35A. Lifanov2.10615114122D. Boltnekov1.671113511143
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