TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12399306
Played Aug 11Finished
Vitalii Kaganovych
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1171131012511119
Denys Boltnekov
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kaganovych to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Kaganovych above · Denys Boltnekov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 90 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Vitalii Kaganovych at 57.8%
90 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kaganovych 1–0 Denys Boltnekov Denys Boltnekov has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:56What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kaganovych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kaganovych 1509 vs Boltnekov 1389
Kaganovych
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaganovych 60% vs Boltnekov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaganovych 60% vs Boltnekov 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaganovych +1 · Boltnekov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Kaganovych) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Boltnekov form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaganovych 1.50 / Boltnekov 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Kaganovych)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12399306
Kaganovych1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite62% won 117 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it94% 63 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it80% 79 of 99
Boltnekov2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKaganovych1wins
AwayBoltnekov0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderKaganovych leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKaganovychBoltnekovK − BBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match53.049.0+4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaganovychBoltnekovBasisWin rate · lifetime336 / 543 vs 14 / 2761.9%51.9%336 / 543 vs 14 / 27Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaganovychKaganovych 1.50/Boltnekov 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Kaganovych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kaganovych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJul 31 · 13:25V. Kaganovych—141189113D. Boltnekov—128111172
V. Kaganovych10
WSep 1 · 19:25V. Sydorenko3.005111061V. Kaganovych1.3611712113WSep 1 · 18:25V. Kaganovych1.50411411113V. Hainiuk2.5011411492WSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:55V. Kaganovych1.5711813123A. Lifanov2.2581111101WSep 1 · 13:55V. Kaganovych1.501211133I. Elfemov2.50108110LAug 31 · 18:35V. Sharpai1.8351111113V. Kaganovych1.83119671WAug 31 · 17:35V. Kaganovych1.5071211113V. Hainiuk2.501110781LAug 31 · 16:35V. Kaganovych1.40118118122R. Serhyenko2.75911811143WAug 31 · 15:05V. Kaganovych1.8011911113V. Chumak1.91911931LAug 31 · 13:05V. Kaganovych1.5771161182F. Chashchin2.25117115113
D. Boltnekov10
LAug 13 · 19:35V. Hainiuk1.801111113D. Boltnekov1.917960LAug 13 · 18:05D. Boltnekov1.444580R. Serhyenko2.631111113LAug 13 · 16:05I. Elfemov2.001111113D. Boltnekov1.732740WAug 13 · 14:05M. Skliar1.83561171D. Boltnekov1.8311115113WAug 13 · 13:05D. Patalakha1.835970D. Boltnekov1.831111113WAug 11 · 19:05F. Chashchin2.507480D. Boltnekov1.501111113WAug 11 · 18:05I. Elfemov1.575690D. Boltnekov2.251111113WAug 11 · 16:35V. Sydorenko2.5011811992D. Boltnekov1.50711111113LAug 11 · 14:35V. Hainiuk1.831112113D. Boltnekov1.8381080WAug 6 · 12:35A. Lifanov2.10615114122D. Boltnekov1.671113511143
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.